242
FXUS61 KCTP 221740
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
140 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE END OF OCTOBER
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONABLY DRY WEATHER INTO THE END OF OCTOBER
REPEAT PATTERN OF SEASONABLY SUNNY DAYS AND CHILLY/FROSTY
NIGHTS ROLLS ON INTO THE END OF THE MONTH. FROST HEADLINES ARE
PROBABLE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEBANON AND LANCASTER
COUNTIES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF FROST,
EXPECT SOLID VFR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND BRING AN INCREASE IN THE NNW WIND WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTINESS INTO THE TEENS (CENTRAL AND WEST) AND LOW 20S
(KTS) ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A SCT-BKN
DECK OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, WITH FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY (KMDT/KLNS) AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) IS MODERATELY LIKELY
(40-50% CHANCE) TO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH LOWER CHANCES (MAINLY 15-25%) ACROSS THE LAURELS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT). ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AIRFIELDS (KJST/KAOO) AS THE
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSES SOUTHWESTWARD, A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR IS OTHERWISE FAVORED.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...STEINBUGL
KEY MESSAGES...STEINBUGL
DISCUSSION...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...TEARE/LAMBERT/STEINBUGL
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