981
FXUS61 KCTP 221814
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
214 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF OCTOBER.
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BARELY
BE NOTICEABLE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TOMORROW AS A PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM
DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS.
HREF PROBS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES (THE
ONLY ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE). THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND 32 IN BOTH OF THOSE COUNTIES. THIS INFORMATION, COMBINED
WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, HAS GIVEN US ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
OUTSIDE OF EARLY MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG AND AREAS OF FROST,
EXPECT SOLID VFR FLYING CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND BRING AN INCREASE IN THE NNW WIND WITH SOME
MINOR GUSTINESS INTO THE TEENS (CENTRAL AND WEST) AND LOW 20S
(KTS) ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY AND POINTS EAST.
LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A SCT-BKN
DECK OF POST-FRONTAL STRATOCUMULUS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, WITH FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE LOWER
SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY (KMDT/KLNS) AS DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR FILTERS
IN OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) IS MODERATELY LIKELY
(40-50% CHANCE) TO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH LOWER CHANCES (MAINLY 15-25%) ACROSS THE LAURELS AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT). ALTHOUGH THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING AND BRING INTERMITTENT MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AIRFIELDS (KJST/KAOO) AS THE
AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROGRESSES SOUTHWESTWARD, A RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR IS OTHERWISE FAVORED.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ059-066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...LAMBERT/STEINBUGL/TEARE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page