184
FXUS61 KCTP 222323
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
723 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FREEZE WATCH ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON
COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF OCTOBER.
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BARELY
BE NOTICEABLE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TOMORROW AS A PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM
DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS.
HREF PROBS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES (THE
ONLY ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE). THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND 32 IN BOTH OF THOSE COUNTIES. THIS INFORMATION, COMBINED
WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, HAS GIVEN US ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF BRIEF PERIODS OF VALLEY FOG AND A THIN LOW STRATUS
DECK TONIGHT, THERE ARE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF REDUCTIONS TO
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A SCT-BKN THIN DECK OF POST-
FRONTAL STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA, WITH FEW TO NO CLOUDS EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND I-80. THE NORTHERN TIER (KBFD) IS
MODERATELY LIKELY (40-50% CHANCE) TO SEE PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT, MAINLY TOWARDS THE EARLY HOURS OF
FRIDAY MORNING. LOWER CHANCES FOR MVFR ARE PRESENT (MAINLY
LESS THAN 20%) ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS (KUNV/KIPT).
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY SCATTER OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, AND
VFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
SAT-TUE...VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR PAZ059-066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BAUCO
AVIATION...BOWEN
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