090
FXUS61 KCTP 230738
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
338 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LANCASTER AND
LEBANON COUNTIES.
* ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE END OF OCTOBER.
OVERALL, FORECAST REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE OUTSIDE OF THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS ALLOWED FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THIS WILL ALSO LOWER THE FOG THREAT
OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF I-80 COULD GET SOME PATCHY FOG CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, ISSUED AT 2:14 PM EDT 10/22/2026:
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WILL BARELY
BE NOTICEABLE OTHER THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TOMORROW AS A PRONOUNCED RIDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AROUND
THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONABLY WARM
DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS.
HREF PROBS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY NIGHT
ARE AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES (THE
ONLY ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE). THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND 32 IN BOTH OF THOSE COUNTIES. THIS INFORMATION, COMBINED
WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, HAS GIVEN US ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE
NORTH AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING (MAINLY
BFD), THERE ARE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN N TO NE FLOW, WITH LIGHTER WINDS TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
SAT-TUE...VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
PAZ059-066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...BEATY/BAUCO
KEY MESSAGES...BAUCO
DISCUSSION...BEATY/BAUCO
AVIATION...COLBERT/BOWEN
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