908
FXUS61 KCTP 231724
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
124 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LANCASTER AND
LEBANON COUNTIES.
* ADJUSTMENTS TO NEAR-TERM TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE LAST WEEK OF
OCTOBER.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE EARLY
TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE CFRONT, A BRIEF, SEVERAL-HOUR UPTICK
IN NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SUSQ
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
TODAY.
PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN DECREASE TO 0.25 OF AN INCH OR LESS
FOR THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS.
HREF PROBS OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY SAT ARE 50 PERCENT OR LESS FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON
COUNTIES (THE ONLY ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS
ACTIVE).
NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE HAVE SHOWN A SLIGHT INCREASE TO 33-36F
IN BOTH OF THOSE COUNTIES. THIS TREND (ALBEIT WITH STILL VERY
FAVORABLE SET UP FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING), HAS LED US
TO HOLD ONTO (FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE) THE FREEZE WATCH FOR
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
WIDESPREAD FROST APPEARS LIKELY ACRS MUCH OF THESE 2 COUNTIES
(AND ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA), BUT THERE IS STILL
SOME QUESTION IF WE'LL SEE MANY SUB-FREEZING MIN TEMPS IN THE
CURRENT WATCH AREA.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US.
LINGERING SCT-BKN STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE LAURELS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT AND CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY IN N TO NE FLOW, WITH LIGHTER WINDS
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
OUTSIDE OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG IN THE NORTH (KBFD),
THERE ARE VERY LOW PROBABILITIES OF REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
SUN-WED...VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR PAZ059-066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...
KEY MESSAGES...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...COLBERT/BOWEN/TEARE
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