436
FXUS61 KCTP 240806
AFDCTP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR LANCASTER AND LEBANON COUNTIES.
* DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO DEWPOINTS NEXT THREE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY FORECAST HOLDS FOR THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRY FORECAST HOLDS FOR NEXT 5-6 DAYS
FREEZE SEEMS LIKELY ENOUGH TO POST YET ANOTHER FREEZE WARNING
FOR THE TWO COUNTIES NOT YET OUT OF THE GROWING SEASON. WHILE
THE URBAN PLACES MAY STAY ABOVE FREEZING, THE LIGHT WIND AND FEW
CLOUDS WILL HELP THE RURAL AREAS TO GET DOWN TO 32F. GUIDANCE
DOES KEEP THE VALUES UP MORE 32-34F FOR MOST PLACES, BUT THE
WIND SHOULD BE GONE, AND THEY JUST NEED AN HOUR TO DROP ENOUGH
TO WARRANT THE FREEZE WARNING FOR >50% OF EACH COUNTY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE MAKING THE LIGHT/NIL WIND AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKY POSSIBLE WILL SILENTLY HOLD ONTO THE REGION FOR MANY MORE
DAYS. A FRONT, STARVED OF MOISTURE, WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT-TUES, BUT POPS ARE HARDLY WORTH HAVING AS
PWATS STAY VERY LOW BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A
NEW AIRMASS, JUST AS DRY AS THIS ONE THEN MOVES IN FROM THE NW
AND CONTINUES THE DRY FORECAST. PER ALMOST EVERY
MODEL/MEMBER/WOOLY WORM I COULD FIND, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
COMES ON/NEAR HALLOWEEN.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOOKING AT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE AS WELL. VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND
SUN MORNING, WITH A 30-40 PCT CHANCE OF IMPACTING BFD AND IPT.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN LIKELY TO LAST AT LEAST INTO MID WEEK.
SUN-WED...VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ059-066.
WHAT HAS CHANGED...DANGELO
KEY MESSAGES...DANGELO
DISCUSSION...DANGELO
AVIATION...COLBERT/MARTIN
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