488
FXUS65 KCYS 200000
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
455 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 104 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
CHADRON HAS RECEIVED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR
65 MPH FOR THE PAST HOUR, THUS WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR DAWES COUNTY NEBRASKA UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR DAWES COUNTY NEBRASKA, AND FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
WEDNESDAY FOR ARLINGTON AND THE I-80 SUMMIT.
- WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LESS
WIND FOR THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
TONIGHT...STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AT CHADRON NEBRASKA WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 65 MPH, THUS WE HAVE
ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING THERE UNTIL 5 PM AS THE GRADIENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO LESSEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR INDICATING SNOW SHOWERS
OVER AND NEAR THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES, THOUGH LOW LEVELS
ARE QUITE DRY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING OVER AND NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED MOUNTAINS. 700 MB
WINDS INCREASE TO 50 TO 60 KNOTS BY MORNING, WHILE THE CRAIG-CASPER
700 MB AND 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALSO INCREASE, AND OUR LOCAL WIND
MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS INCREASING WINDS, THUS WE WILL UPGRADE OUR HIGH
WIND WATCHES TO WARNINGS FOR ARLINGTON AND THE I-80 SUMMIT STARTING
AT 8 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ON TAP WITH MINIMUMS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT RISING
SIGNIFICANTLY. WITH 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -4 CELSIUS, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, IN THE 40S. AGAIN, LOW AND MID LEVEL
GRADIENTS SUGGEST ANOTHER WINDY DAY WITH THE HIGH WIND WARNING
CONTINUING FOR ARLINGTON AND THE I-80 SUMMIT AREAS UNTIL 5 PM.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD, THE LOW LEVELS
WILL MODERATE WITH WARMER OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY...A RATHER PLEASANT DAY WEATHERWISE WITH RIDGING ALOFT, AND
700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 2 CELSIUS YIELDING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. LOW AND MID LEVEL GRADIENTS SUGGEST
BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-25.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST.
UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES 10 TO AS
MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. BY SATURDAY, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL
SOMEWHAT AS A BROAD TROUGH/PACIFIC JET APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER, AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES, A STRONG DOWNSLOPE WIND
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP IN AREAS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONE MORE DAY OF WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY. ALONG AND TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, SURFACE
WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS THIS JET MOVES OVERHEAD AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS. HIGH WIND PRODUCTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL MIXED AS TO
WHETHER WINDS WILL EXCEED 50 KNOTS IN THE TYPICAL WIND-PRONE
CORRIDORS GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER BY THIS TIME.
SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY LOOK TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROAD WESTERN
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND, EACH OF WHICH WILL
MAKE AN ATTEMPT AT BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING
AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE
DISPERSIVE WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES, AND THE ONLY REALLY CONFIDENT ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD IS WITH REGARD TO A GENERAL COOL-DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION. ONE WAVE OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY
EJECT NORTHWARD IN THE FORM OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH SYSTEM WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
TOTALING NO MORE THAN 2-3 INCHES. OTHER GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE
ECMWF/EPS TAKE THIS WAVE OF ENERGY TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO OUR CWA AND A DRY FORECAST IS FAVORED. CURRENT
GRIDS REFLECT MORE OF AN EPS FLAVOR WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, A MORE POTENT VORT MAX
ROTATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONNECTION WITH IT AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND POSSIBLY THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS WELL. TODAY'S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
CERTAINLY TRENDED TO A WETTER SOLUTION WITH BETTER DYNAMICS AND
LIFT OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN WYOMING AND NORTHERN
COLORADO IN THE 6Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME ON MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD BRING AT LEAST AN INCH OF QPF TO THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME
PRECIPITATION LIKELY EAST OF I-25 AS WELL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS SOMETIME ON
MONDAY. PRECIPITATION EAST OF I-25 WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW
FAST THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH - A QUICKER PASSAGE WOULD RESULT
IN A MORE FAVORABLE SURFACE FLOW PATTERN FOR SNOW IN THE HIGH
PLAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE
COMING DAYS WITH REGARD TO THIS POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 PM MST TUE NOV 19 2024
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT, WITH BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS ACTIVITY AND SNOW FLURRIES
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING BY 04Z. WINDY OR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS OR
SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TERMINALS OVER THE
NEXT 4 HOURS. WINDY CONDITIONS WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LLWS WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE UNTIL 14Z.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 500 PM WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110-116.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...RUBIN
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...TJT
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