993
FXUS65 KCYS 201718
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1018 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WIND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
FOR DAWES COUNTY NEBRASKA, AND FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
WEDNESDAY FOR ARLINGTON AND THE I-80 SUMMIT.
- WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
GUSTY WINDS HAVE MADE A RETURN EARLY THIS MORNING AFTER A BRIEF
PERIOD OF REDUCED WINDS DURING THE EVENING TIMELINE. THE I-80
SUMMIT REGION HAS ALREADY OBSERVED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
60MPH. STRONG WINDS ALOFT VIA NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW COMBINED
WITH THE SUBSIDENCE WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD AND WINDY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF 9Z THIS MORNING IN
THE TEENS AND 20S ARE QUITE COLD, AND WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, MANY
AREAS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
WIND CHILL READINGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE NE PANHANDLE ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT ONLY INTO THE TEENS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA WILL
AMPLIFY TODAY, AND PROPAGATE TOWARDS WY. AS THIS OCCURS, WAA
BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL SCOOT NORTH AND EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SLIGHTLY, BUT WITH THE BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS, IT WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY CHILLY OUTSIDE. THE WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET LATER TODAY, BUT IT WILL BE A GRADUAL
TIMELINE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HOVER NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OF
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S. THE ELEVATED WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE OVERNIGHT, BUT STILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER. IN FACT, IT WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS WILL BE
HAPPENING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PROPAGATING OVER WY, AND OUR CWA IN PARTICULAR. FORTUNATELY, THE
WINDS WILL DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE DRY
AIR WILL BE STICKING AROUND DURING THIS PERIOD. THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND "GENTLE" WINDS FOR OUR CWA'S STANDARDS
WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE ISOLATED PATCHES OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WY AND THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, BUT IT
WOULD STILL BE PRUDENT TO CONSIDER ANY LOCALIZED BURN
RESTRICTIONS. THE NICE WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE WE SEE OUR NEXT
COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RIDGE
AXIS MOVES THROUGH. LATEST HIGH WIND GUIDANCE SHOWING CRAIG TO
CASPER 850/700MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS OF 40MTRS WITH 700MB WINDS 30
TO 35KTS. COULD BE CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS CRAIG TO CASPER GRADIENTS CLIMB TO 50MTRS AFTER 18Z.
NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
SURFACE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FRONT STAYING WITH US FOR A WHILE WITH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. GFS SHOWING WIDESPREAD
QPF AROUND .75 INCHES WHILE THE ECMWF DOWN NEAR .25 INCH. ALL OF
THIS PRECIP EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN SOME AREAS. RIGHT
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE RANGES WILL SEE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS WHILE THE REST OF CARBON AND ALBANY
COUNTIES SEE 1-3 INCHES.
THIS FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. PRETTY COLD 700MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT AROUND
-10 TO -12C. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 AM MST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
TERMINALS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING
EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD INCLUDE GUSTY TO STRONGER WINDS AS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PULSE WITHIN THE FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CYCLING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONCE
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD,
SHOULD SEE THESE WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WYZ110-116.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...MRD/GERHARDT
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