008
FXUS65 KCYS 030847
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
247 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY DEPARTED THE REGION JUST TO
THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA. SOME
LOW CLOUDS OR FOG MAY REDEVELOP THOUGH THROUGH THIS MORNING,
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND PERHAPS INTO NIOBRARA COUNTY. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR AND RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS
INTO THE DAY, WHEN WE'LL BE LOOKING AT OUR NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE ACTIVITY.
ALOFT, WE'LL SEE A SMALL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
REGION WITHIN THE STRONGER FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST
OVER THE BORDER IN CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL BE LOOKING AT A
WEAKER ENVIRONMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
DEWPOINTS STRUGGLING A BIT MORE PARTICULARLY INTO WYOMING IN THE
40'S WITH SOME 50'S FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE
INSTABILITY REMAINS RELATIVELY MEAGER IN THE 500-800 J/KG RANGE,
THOUGH SOME 1000-1300 VALUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE SRH WILL ALSO BE LIMITED WITH VALUES BARELY
INTO THE 100 M2/S2 RANGE, THOUGH ONCE AGAIN WE MAY SEE SOME
200-300 VALUES INT HE PANHANDLE. CONVECTION SHOULD GET GOING
JUST AFTER NOON IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE PANHANDLE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING, BUT BY THE
TIME THE SUN GOES DOWN THE BULK IF NOT ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BARE MINIMUM OF SEVERE POTENTIAL,
WITH GUSTY WINDS OR SOME HAIL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
MOVING INTO THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARDS AND CLEAR THE AREA, BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE OVERALL FLOW SHOULD PASS ACROSS AND BRING ANOTHER RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ONCE AGAIN. THE
BULK OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WHERE A SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION WILL BE PRIMED FOR MUCH
STRONGER CONVECTION COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY, WITH AROUND
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, THOUGH ISOLATED VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2500 IN DAWES COUNTY CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THIS ALONGSIDE SRH
VALUES 200-400 M2/S2 WILL PROMOTE STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
STRONG WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO. CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO WANE THOUGH INTO THE EARLY
EVENING TIMEFRAME AND AS THE FRONT AND LOW PASS EASTWARDS, BUT
LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM REMNANT BOUNDARIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
WITH FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LINGERING. BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA.
AND FOR ALREADY SATURATED AREAS SUCH AS DAWES COUNTY, STORMS
WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING AND SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LOWER, LEADING TO A LESSENED FLOOD RISK.
OUTSIDE OF OUR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, WE'LL BE LOOKING AT A
PAIR OF FAIRLY WARM DAYS IN THE SHORT TERM, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70'S TO UPPER 80'S TODAY, JUMPING TO THE 80'S TO LOW 90'S
ON THURSDAY. SOME BREEZIER CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY ACROSS CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES FROM AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT WE'RE DEFINITELY NOT BACK IN HIGH WIND
TERRITORY AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
STORM CHANCES WILL DROP BACK SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES
EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DEEP PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS WILL AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS, PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARD INTO
THE WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THE 80S ON FRIDAY, WITH FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 90S POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVERHEAD.
700-MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND +12 TO +16C WILL BE AROUND THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE. SUNDAY'S HIGHS MAY DROP SLIGHTLY FOR
OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, WITH WIDESPREAD MID 80S TO MID 90S. CURRENT FORECAST
REMAIN COMFORTABLY BELOW DAILY RECORD HIGHS, BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY
BE A WARM TO HOT FEW DAYS.
WHILE PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY LOOKS VERY ISOLATED, MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY TICK UPWARDS AGAIN SATURDAY ONWARD. MOISTURE WILL
IMPROVE ALOFT FIRST, INCREASING ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
FEW ISOLATED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A DRY MICROBURST
HAZARD, BUT THIS IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE SEVERAL DAYS OUT. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO RECOVER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH
WILL THEN ALLOW FOR HIGHER CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION,
BUT ALSO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN EARLY LOOK FROM THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS FAIRLY POTENT INSTABILITY AND THUS MORE
PREVALENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HAS DISSIPATED OR MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TERMINALS TO BE OF SOME CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY IS FINISHED, LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR
MAINLY THE EASTERN PLAINS TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR KCDR AND KAIA
WITH THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINALS AND/OR EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AND FOG
AFTER 09Z UNTIL 15Z. ELSEWHERE, HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KCYS AND ALL WESTERN NEBRASKA
TERMINALS AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TT
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