327
FXUS65 KCYS 032051
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
251 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY THE WEEKEND AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOME MORE ISOLATED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALBEIT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS THE LAST FEW DAYS. WITH MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
DOMINATING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, STORM COVERAGE WILL
MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS IS WHERE
MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS CURRENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOW AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. RADAR SHOWS A FEW STORMS GOING UP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF COLORADO. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR BY MID-AFTERNOON ALONG THE
LARAMIE RANGE AND DRYLINE POSITIONED IN THE VICINITY. STORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS MORE KEEN ON STORM CLUSTERS TODAY THAN DISCRETE CELLS,
POSING MORE OF A SEVERE WIND THREAT THAN A HAIL THREAT. WITH DCAPE
VALUES IN THE PANHANDLE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG, SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS. THERE IS ALSO ROUGHLY 1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE, SO
EMBEDDED, BUT ISOLATED, LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS WILL
PUSH OUT OF THE PANHANDLE LATER THIS EVENING, LEADING TO QUIET
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
AN INTERESTING FORECAST IS EXPECTED HEADED INTO THE DAY THURSDAY.
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TREKS ACROSS
WYOMING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TURN WINDS MORE
WESTERLY, DRYING OUT THE LOW AND MID-LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT, MODELS, BOTH GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE ANALYZE THE
DRYLINE PRETTY FAR EASTWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. THE
DRYLINE COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM THE WYOMING/NEBRASKA BORDER TO THE
EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. DEPENDING WHERE THE DRYLINE SETS UP,
THIS COULD PROFOUNDLY AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF STORMS THE AREA SEES, OR
IF STORMS EVEN IMPACT THE AREA AT ALL. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY
NOT BULLISH ENOUGH TO SAY STORMS WON'T OCCUR, BUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE. THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS
GUSTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LINES UP WITH GFS SOUNDINGS
SHOWING STRONG INVERTED-V PROFILES FROM THE DRY LOW AND MID-
LEVELS. DCAPE VALUES DO EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN PARTS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SO CANNOT RULE OUT SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THESE
GUSTY SHOWERS. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO SHOW AN
INTERESTING FEATURE OVERNIGHT AROUND CHADRON. PRETTY GOOD
ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL EXIST AS WELL AS A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG STORMS OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS
WELL AS NIOBRARA COUNTY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL THEN AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WITH CONSIDERABLE
SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN OVERHEAD FRIDAY. AN INVERSION ALOFT AROUND
600-MB WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY, LIKELY
SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. 700-MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND +10 TO +15C,
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE DAY MAY START OFF WITH
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A FRONT PASSING THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, BUT EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE THE FIRST TASTE OF THE SEASON OF REAL
SUMMER HEAT ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALOFT, EXPECT
700-MB TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB TO AROUND +13 TO +18C BY SATURDAY. THIS
SHOULD EASILY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
INTERESTINGLY, FOR SCOTTSBLUFF, SIDNEY, AND ALLIANCE, THE HOTTEST
DAY OF 2026 THROUGH JUNE 3 OCCURRED IN MARCH! THIS SHOULD BE EASILY
BESTED SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR IN WYOMING, AND 90S ELSEWHERE. LOCATIONS AROUND
SCOTTSBLUFF, TORRINGTON, CHADRON, AND CRAWFORD HAVE A 40 TO 50%
CHANCE TO SEE THEIR FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON. WHILE IT
WILL CERTAINLY BE HOT, MOST LOCATIONS HAVE FORECASTS SEVERAL DEGREES
AWAY FROM DAILY RECORD HIGHS. THE HOT TEMPERATURES MOVING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO A DEEPER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS A
WEAKER OR ABSENT INVERSION ALOFT. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER GOING ON
SATURDAY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND
IS FAIRLY LOW.
THE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY, KNOCKING
DOWN TEMPERATURES BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EAST OF CHEYENNE'S LONGITUDE, HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER, BUT CLOSER TO SATURDAY'S VALUES WITH ANOTHER DAY OF
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOOK FOR A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT AGAIN,
RAINFALL MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. A
LEADING SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY, KNOCKING DOWN TEMPERATURES AND ALSO PERHAPS PROVIDING SOME
LIFT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THE DETAILS REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN SEVERAL DAYS
OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE LIMITED TODAY THAN THE LAST
FEW DAYS, BUT STILL EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING IN
FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THE PROBABILITY FOR STORM IMPACTS IS HIGHEST AT SNY,
BUT ALSO POSSIBLE AT CYS, BFF, AND AIA. AT SNY, VIS REDUCTIONS
AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH HAIL POSSIBLE. FOR
THE OTHER TERMINALS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN VIS REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL IS
LOWER. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AROUND 03Z.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING,
WHICH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING. WYOMING TERMINALS CAN EXPECT
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO RETURN MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN
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