696
FXUS65 KCYS 050717
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
117 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
- EXPECT A QUICK COOL DOWN ON MONDAY BEFORE HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 115 AM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION IS NOTED IN NIOBRARA COUNTY AND IN
COLORADO/NEBRASKA BORDERING OUR ZONES, BUT OVERALL THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS ENDED FOR THE DAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE
EXITING THE REGION. WITH THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF THE AREA, WE'LL
NOW MOVE INTO A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. ALOFT WE'LL SEE A FAIRLY
COMPLEX AND MESSY SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL OVERTAKE
MUCH OF THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS, BUT A LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND A VERY STRONG AND DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST WILL KEEP THIS RIDGE FROM STRENGTHENING IMMEDIATELY
OVER THE CWA. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL SEE VERY DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS, WITH RH VALUES PLUMMETING INTO THE WIDESPREAD TEENS
BY SATURDAY, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE IN THE
80'S WITH A FEW 90'S POSSIBLE, AND ON SATURDAY 90'S TO SOME
TRIPLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE VALUES NEARING RECORDS FOR
THE DAY.
MEANWHILE THE ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THESE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENTS. THE COMBINATION OF
THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. THE
TWO PRIMARY LOCATIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OUR
EASTERN ZONES, MOSTLY IN CARBON COUNTY, AND SOUTHEASTERN WY/NE
PANHANDLE. FOR CARBON COUNTY, OUR LAST UPDATE WITH PARTNERS
INDICATES FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL, SO WE WILL BE HOLDING OFF ON
ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. OUR WESTERN ZONES HOWEVER ARE
ANOTHER MATTER, AND OUR LAST UPDATES INDICATE THAT CRITICAL
FUELS REMAIN. WE HAVE REACHED OUT TO MAKE SURE THAT THIS IS
STILL THE CASE DUE TO RECENT PRECIPITATION FROM THE SEVERAL DAYS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WE'VE SEEN, BUT TO ERR ON THE SAFE SIDE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE UPDATED BY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AT THE LATEST, BUT IN ANY
CASE CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED MOVING INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE TO
THE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FINALLY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL PASS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY, AND COULD TRY IT'S HARDEST TO PRODUCE SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY, HOWEVER WITH HOW DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE IT'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY MUCH OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO REACH
THE GROUND. THAT BEING SAID SOME INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE A FEW
STRIKES OF LIGHTNING, CREATING FURTHER FIRE CONCERNS, AND WITH
DCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG, THE RETURN OF GUSTY SHOWERS/VIRGA
IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL AMPLIFY A POWERFUL RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND. WARM AIR WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD, SENDING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE HOT TEMPERATURES.
NAEFS MEAN 700-MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AROUND +15 TO +17C ACROSS
THE AREA, WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH TO 99TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS THE AREA. OVER MOST OF THE AREA, HIGHS WILL EASILY
BE 15 TO 20F ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH THE LARGEST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE CHADRON AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF DAILY RECORD HIGHS, BUT NO RECORDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
RAWLINS TO CHEYENNE CORRIDOR CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES, WHILE EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW UP IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF CHEYENNE. PROBABILITIES FOR
100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 50 TO 60% IN TORRINGTON,
SCOTTSBLUFF, AND CHADRON, AND AROUND 20 TO 30% IN SIDNEY AND
ALLIANCE. DESPITE A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, THE HEAT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF HIGH-BASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE LOCATION OF THE DRYLINE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE
TO PRODUCE NOTABLE RAINFALL, OR IF IT WILL JUST BE THE TYPICAL DRY
MICROBURST THREAT. SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, BUT EXPECT HIGHS WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ONCE AGAIN. THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT POSITION OF
THE DRYLINE, WHICH COULD VARY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ENTIRELY EAST OF OUR
AREA, AND CLOSER TO THE WY/NE STATE LINE.
EXPECT A MODEST COOL DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER
NORTH WITH THIS COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY, BUT JUST BY PERHAPS 5 OR SO
DEGREES. THE POWERFUL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS YET ANOTHER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST
COAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT HIGHS TO SURGE TO NEAR RECORD HIGH VALUES
YET AGAIN FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND POSSIBLY BEYOND. ENSEMBLES ARE
NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT ANY POINT DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND DRY AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE PARTICULARLY CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DAYS
DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT IN BETWEEN THE WEST COAST
TROUGH AND THE POWERFUL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
STORMS AND SHOWERS ARE BEING DETECTED ON REGIONAL RADARS, HOWEVER
THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON ITS WAY EAST BY THE
START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF REMAINING STORMS
IMPACTING A TERMINAL IS VERY LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS UNDERNEATH COMPLEX BOUNDARIES LEFT
BEHIND FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY PRESENT A LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR HAZARD TO SOME WESTERN NEBRASKA TERMINALS IN THE NEAR
TERM. KAIA APPEARED TO HAVE THE BEST SIGNAL FROM GUIDANCE,
THEREFORE A SHORT TERM INCLUSION OF WIND SHEAR WAS INCLUDED. A
COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL IMPART GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 08-15Z, AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AT MOST TERMINALS. SOME CIGS COULD APPROACH
MVFR OR BRIEFLY IFR. FOG IS UNCERTAIN TO DEVELOP FOR KCYS AND
THE NEBRASKA TERMINALS DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
AIR AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY IS
THERE.
AFTER DAYBREAK SKIES WILL CLEAR AND STAY MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SWITCH OF WINDS FROM NORTHERLY
TO SOUTHEASTERLY WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WITH KLAR AND
KRWL BECOMING WESTERLY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ430>433.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...RV
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