883
FXUS65 KCYS 060709
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
109 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
- A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT RISK (2/5) IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY FOR EAST-CENTRAL
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
- EXPECT A QUICK COOL DOWN ON MONDAY BEFORE HEAT BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 107 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A DEEP TROUGH AND
LOW OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SMALL AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WITH A MUCH
STRONGER SHORTWAVE GRAZING THE CWA BUT MOSTLY IMPACTING FURTHER
NORTH INTO MONTANA ON SUNDAY. WITH THIS PATTERN, LOOK FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BRING WARM AND DRY DESERT
SOUTHWEST AIR, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ROCKETING INTO THE 80'S
TO 90'S FOR WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, AND UPPER 80'S TO TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SOME OF THESE
HIGHS WILL NEAR RECORDS FOR THE DAY. MEANWHILE THE ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS, WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING ON SATURDAY, AND THEN MUCH STRONGER
WINDS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SUNDAY. THESE WINDS ALONGSIDE
VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE WESTERN ZONES REMAIN IN
GREENUP AND FUELS ARE NOT CRITICAL, OUR FUELS STATUS REMAINS
CRITICAL FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE, AND A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR TODAY BECAUSE
OF THIS. TO FURTHER ENHANCE THIS DANGER, THE WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
SATURDAY COULD PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION THAT WILL
STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AT THE SURFACE, CREATING GUSTY
VIRGA SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRY LIGHTNING.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY, OUR CONCERN BECOMES SEVERE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN, THOUGH THE BULK OF MOST STRONG ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION. THAT BEING SAID, A MARGINAL RISK (1/5)
IS EXPECTED FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, PRIMARILY CONVERSE AND
NIOBRARA COUNTIES INTO THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (2/5) JUST BARELY CLIPPING THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
WYOMING COUNTIES. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PRETTY QUICKLY
OVERTAKE THE SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE GOING WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF OUR
CWA, BUT AS MENTIONED THE BETTER INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE LIE TOO
FAR NORTH AND KEEP OUR TIMING LOW FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
ACTIVITY. STILL, SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY AROUND 500-800 J/KG
WILL BE PRESENT ALONGSIDE POCKETS OF FAVORABLE HELICITY, SO A
FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF BASELINE SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. DON'T BE SURPRISED AS WELL IF A FEW SUB-SEVERE
STORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM FURTHER SOUTH OF THE SEVERE RISK, AND
MODEST DCAPE MAY HELP PROMOTE SOME STRONGER GUSTS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE SUMMERTIME HEAT IS ON ORDER MONDAY AS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE BRUSHES AND A SURFACE COOL FRONT DRAGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO WARM HOWEVER,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF I-25 STILL REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
80S. DESPITE THE INCREASED FORCING WITH THE WAVE AND FRONT, MOISTURE
WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW POP-UP STORMS, MAINLY
NEAR THE RANGES AND IN THE PANHANDLE, BUT MOST SPOTS WILL STAY DRY.
THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REAMPLIFIES
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR
RECORD HEAT FOR EASTERN WYO AND WESTERN NEB ON TUESDAY. THE MIDDLE
OF THE NBM ENVELOPE SUGGESTS HIGHS AROUND 90F AT CYS AND UPPER 90S
FOR BFF/CDR. THE NEXT UPPER LOW SPINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, SWITCHING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK OFF TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY LATE NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME, FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE PATTERN IS THE
EPITOME OF "DRY HEAT" AS HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS
TUE-THU. COUPLED WITH ROUNDS OF GUSTIER WINDS (30+ KTS), LIMITED
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, AND CONTINUED D2-D4 DROUGHT ACROSS THE
REGION, ADDITIONAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BE REALIZED. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE, AND THURSDAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET LINES
UP WITH THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
A LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. KCDR MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THIS JET. THIS JET HAS ALSO
TRANSPORTED A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NORTH INTO AREAS OF THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. GIVEN THE NEAR SATURATED SURFACE AIR, PATCHY
FOG OR A LAYER OF LOW STRATUS, WITH CIGS DOWN TO 500 FEET, ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP HERE. KSNY APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING FOG, THOUGH HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LESS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SOLUTION. GIVEN THE
OVER ACHIEVING DEW POINTS BEING OBSERVED THIS EVENING, FOG WAS
KEPT IN THE TAF HERE. KAIA AND KBFF COULD EXPERIENCE A LOW
STRATUS DECK WHICH MAY BRIEFLY SEND IT INTO MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS, THOUGH FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT THESE TERMINALS.
AROUND SUNRISE THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP AND LIFT THIS
STRATUS DECK BEFORE IT DISPERSES.
IN THE AFTERNOON HIGH BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION THE LAST FEW RUNS.
WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE STILL BELOW 30, TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
ANY TERMINAL TAF, THE IMPACTS OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
IMPART STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS TO REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD EXCEED 50 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS
DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY AS WELL. WINDS OUTSIDE OF THOSE
CONVECTIVELY INFLUENCED WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
FOR ALL TERMINALS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW
LEVEL JET IS LIKELY TO FORM WITH GUSTS REACHING 35 KNOTS AT THE
HIGH PLAINS TERMINALS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
WYZ430>433.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ434>437.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...RV
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