220
FXUS63 KDDC 172245
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
445 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.
- RAIN ENDS QUICKLY WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING.
- KILLING FREEZE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR CHANNEL SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE BAJA. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
EVENTUALLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO MONDAY WITH MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. THE MAIN SHOW IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FA. RAIN WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FA DURING THE MORNING. 12Z KDDC RAOB PWAT
WAS 0.68”. THIS PWAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER 1.00” THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. THIS IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND IS CLOSE
TO THE MAX PWAT VALUE. THIS, OF COURSE, DEPENDS ON HOW EXACTLY
HIGH THE FINAL PWAT WILL PEAK OUT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT QPF
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3” LOOKS LIKELY ACROSS A PORTION OF THE FA. HAVE
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 283. SEVERAL CAMS ARE COMING INTO CONSENSUS WITH THESE
RAIN AMOUNTS. THIS MATCHES UP WITH BOTH GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, WHICH ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE CONCERNED AREA. ANYWAY, ALL
THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO THE NE TOMORROW AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION.
THE NEXT BUSINESS WEEK IS LOOKING TO BE DRY. NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE INDICATED THROUGH THIS WEEK IN BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE NET RESULT
IS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD DEGRADED FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS
TAF PERIOD AT ALL AIRPORTS. WIDESPREAD IFR STRATUS, LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN, AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR/DZ/RA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AIRPORTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 06Z MON. POOR
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYLIGHT MONDAY AT ALL
AIRPORTS, WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2SM AT TIMES, AND STRATUS
DOWN TO LIFR AT TIMES. RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AROUND 00Z TUE AS RAIN ENDS AND CEILINGS RAPIDLY IMPROVE TO VFR.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON. ELEVATED NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 12Z MON, GUSTING NEAR 25 KTS. WINDS WILL TREND
WESTERLY AND REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...SUGDEN
AVIATION...TURNER
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