866
FXUS63 KDDC 190458
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1058 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WITH AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- COLDEST MORNING WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S, WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
COLD SEASON SO FAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
ANOTHER NOVEMBER RECORD-BREAKING RAINFALL EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY AND AN EXTENDED DRYING OUT PERIOD WILL
COMMENCE TOMORROW. PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN WESTERLY
TONIGHT, AND ONCE WE CLEAR OUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN
INTO THE 30S AND EVEN UPPER 20S FOR LOWS OUT WEST (WEST OF U83). A
FAST-MOVING, VERY LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ZIPPING
EAST ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW,
AND THIS WILL BRING JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO HELP SATURATE OR NEARLY
SATURATE AROUND 700MB, LEADING TO AN AXIS OF CLOUD AND VIRGA ALONG A
SUBTLE COLD FRONTOGENETIC ZONE. WE ADDED IN SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES
INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES, NORTHWEST OF
JOHNSON TO GARDEN TO HAYS LINE, ROUGHLY.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW TOMORROW'S SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE COLD SEASON SO FAR.
OFFICIAL LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST 22 TO 26F, FOLLOWING CLOSELY
THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE LOW TEMPS. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, A
LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL BE THE
PREVAILING THEME MID-LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY LIGHT
WIND. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS FOR
MID-LATE NOVEMBER IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
AS WE HEAD IN TO THE LONGER PERIODS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEAK, THERE IS INCREASING SIGNAL OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PACIFIC JET STREAM ENERGY ENTERS THE
WESTERN CONUS. WE WILL BE WATCHING TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AS FAR AS HOW THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL IMPACT
WESTERN KANSAS, BUT IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO GET IN TO ANY DETAILS
REGARDING HOLIDAY WEEK WEATHER NOVEMBER 25TH AND BEYOND.|
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT
GENERALLY AFTER 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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