638
FXUS63 KDDC 191802
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1202 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD DESPITE THE
SREF SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE COLORADO ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS, SENDING
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN KANSAS BY
MID-DAY. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE LOWER LEVELS, RAIN
CHANCES (<10%) ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRIER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE DOWNSLOPING REINFORCES A DRY AIR MASS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS.
FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO WESTERN KANSAS IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, DROPPING H85 TEMPERATURES DOWN TO NEAR 0C. WITH THE
HREF PAINTING A 30-50% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES TOPPING 45F IN
WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING 50F IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S/50S(F). A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING ALOFT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
GOOD AVIATION WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AND PERHAPS A
PERIOD OF SPRINKLES AROUND HYS THIS AFTERNOON, AS A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT THE ONSET OF THIS TAF PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE DOWN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND SUNSET. A WEST
WIND IN THE 8 TO 11 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY UNDER DRY CONDITIONS.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...UMSCHEID
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