555
FXUS63 KDDC 200804
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WV IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE WEAK RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONS SLOWLY EAST
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. NEAR THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS SPREADING FROM THE COLORADO ROCKIES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
A DRIER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE SREF
INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE THE STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE UPPER MIDWEST SHIFTS
FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW ENHANCING A DRIER AIR MASS IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, RAIN CHANCES
(<10%) ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN AT BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANOTHER PROJECTED COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
WESTERN KANSAS EARLY THURSDAY, FURTHER REINFORCING THE DRY AIR
MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE REGION.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AGAIN TODAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO
THE GENERAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN KANSAS DESPITE
A PREVAILING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE HREF PAINTS A 80-90%
PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 45F IN WEST CENTRAL AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO A 70-90% PROBABILITY OF TOPPING 50F IN SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. SO, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
40S(F) TO THE LOWER/MID 50S(F). WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THURSDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND RESUMING FRIDAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST BEGINS TO MOVE OUT INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1016 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN VICINITY OF ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY. WESTERLIES AROUND 10 TO 20KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH IN
EASTERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE
PERIOD.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...JJOHNSON
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