373
FXUS63 KDLH 141742
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1142 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, MOST LIKELY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
- A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE UPPER
MIDWEST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
BUT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT THIS MORNING, LEAVING BEHIND AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRATUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED FOG AND MIST. THIS
SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH PRIMARILY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE MAY RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR. WITH BUILDING RIDGING WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES
WARM FURTHER WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS, WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S.
A QUICK MOVING LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRUSH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. THIS SYSTEM HAS GOOD SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ALOFT
BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, SO ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY GOING TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT, AND MAY BE LARGELY CONFINED TO FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.
INTO NEXT WEEK, WE FIND OURSELVES LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND A POSSIBLE
TRANSITIONAL SHIFT INTO MORE TYPICAL MID NOVEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
WEATHER. MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY STOUT WAA MAKING
FOR ANOTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY BALMY DAY. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PANHANDLE HOOK TYPE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PUSH INTO THE REGION. BEYOND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE IS A BREAKDOWN IN MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH DISCREPANCIES IN THE STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL BLOCKING
HIGH PRESSURE. MOST SOLUTIONS DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM AND THEN KEEP IT
HANGING AROUND SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WE HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT SOME
KIND OF HYDROMETEORS WILL FALL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND IN THIS TIME
PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION,
THERE IS STILL A HUGE SPECTRUM OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS - SOME OF WHICH
BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF ACCUMULATION WHILE OTHERS DELIVER A LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WE'RE A LITTLE CLOSER TO
BEGIN TO DISCUSS TOTALS AND IMPACTS, BUT THIS IS A SETUP THAT IS
WORTH KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON.
ENSEMBLES ARE PICKING UP ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A PATTERN SHIFT
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
(HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S). THIS APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY DUE TO MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT FOR A SHIFT INTO A
NEGATIVE ARCTIC OSCILLATION (AS) INTO LATE NOVEMBER WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR A MORE ACTIVE JET STREAM AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS. SHOULD THESE DEVELOP, ADDITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT PRECIPITATION COULD BE ON THE DOCKET WITH ICE FREE INLAND
LAKES AND A CLIMATOLOGICALLY VERY WARM LAKE SUPERIOR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
LOW STRATUS AND FOG REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION CURRENTLY
WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION
IS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE CLEAR SKIES ARE
SEEN. EXPECTING THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOWER TO IMPROVE AT DLH
WITH THE LOW STRATUS HANGING ON UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE AT AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS BUILD INTO STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THERE
IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS SUNDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND. AS A HEADS UP, A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK,
WHICH COULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ELEVATED
WINDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...LEVENS
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