240
FXUS63 KDLH 151133
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
533 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM THE BRAINERD
LAKES TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
- FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WI.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY (70-90% CHANCE) ON
TUESDAY, MOST LIKELY FALLING AS RAIN.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING AMOUNTS AND LOCATION IS VERY
HIGH AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE CWA. LOW STRATUS HAS BEEN OCCURRING EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG. RECENT OBS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES SHOW
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE, WITH SKIES IN THIS PORTION OF
THE CWA SEEING SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW STRATUS PER NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY. CAMS SUGGEST THAT THIS AREA OF
DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING UNTIL
DIURNAL HEATING AND A DEVELOPING WAA REGIME IMPROVE VISIBILITY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR CASS, CROW WING, AND AITKIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 16Z.
ONCE FOG DISSIPATES LATER THIS MORNING, THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL
BE QUIET WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG IS VERY LIKELY TO MAKE A RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY. MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ENTERS THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS.
BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CWA,
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS LIKELY TO BE
OCCLUDED. DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE UNDER A DRY SLOT SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP FROM THIS
SYSTEM. POPS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED FROM THE NBM SINCE THE DRY
SLOT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCLUDING
NORTH-CENTRAL WI AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD. TOTAL QPF
THIS WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SUNDAY, THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PATTERN FOR MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE
BEFORE A POTENT VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE ARRIVING
INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE
AREA. THIS MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE TAKING A
TRACK TYPICAL OF A PANHANDLE HOOK, QUICKLY MOVING FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION, WITH NAEFS PERCENTILES SHOWING PWAT IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY (70-90% CHANCE) TO OCCUR ON
TUESDAY, WITH PRECIP TYPE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE ALL RAIN.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEAVILY AFTER TUESDAY, AS RIDGING DOWNSTREAM
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST IMPACTS THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE LOW. ONE OF THE
MAIN QUESTIONS WHEN IT COMES TO ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL WILL BE
THE AMOUNT OF CAA THAT CAN OCCUR, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TRACK OF THE LOW. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS MODELED BY GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS, WITH NO CLEAR SOLUTION
AT THIS TIME. SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A STALLING OF THE LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVEN A SLIGHT
RETROGRADE, WHILE OTHERS SHOW THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING
DOWNSTREAM. GIVEN THE LARGE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN THE MODELS,
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS STILL VERY UP IN THE AIR.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT MID NEXT WEEK WILL BEGIN A PERIOD
OF COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT POSSIBLE, THIS COULD INCREASE
THE CHANCE THAT THE CWA STARTS TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFICS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
AN AREA OF DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES, NORTH TO
THE IRON RANGE, AND INTO NORTHWEST WI EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS LIFR
FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING AND
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPROVE VISIBILITY. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND OF
FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOWING AN INCREASING TRENDS TOWARDS REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORY OF MVFR AND LOWER.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY, BACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY MAY NECESSITATE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE ON SUNDAY WITH WINDS VEERING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY. GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATERS, STARTING 10
AM CST SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THE GALE WATCH WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
THIS MORNING TO NARROW THE WATCH AROUND THE TIMEFRAME WHEN GALES ARE
MOST LIKELY. ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
026-033>038.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-006-
007.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...UNRUH
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