682
FXUS63 KDLH 152332
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
532 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS AS A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- DRY CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH AHEAD
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A STRONG LOW. SOME
SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
LINGERING OVERNIGHT STRATUS WAS SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY WITH SOME
STILL HOLDING ON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWARD
INTO WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM WYOMING INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE LOW STRATUS
AND AREAS OF FOG RETURNING OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THIS WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT, BUT COULD STILL BE
DENSE IN SPOTS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA INTO THE IRON RANGE.
THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY REACHING NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF IRON RANGE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
AS WELL WITH A BIT MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED APPROACHING SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME, BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH 40S AND LOWER 50S SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY
SUNDAY INTO THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR WITH UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S EXPECTED FOR MONDAY UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH PWATS NEARING AN
INCH ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHICH WOULD BE NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THE DATE. AS THE LOW MOVES IN, WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
PREDICTABILITY THEN DECREASES FOR THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME AS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PAINT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
SPREAD LOOKS TO HAVE INCREASED FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND BOTH
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE COME DOWN WITH POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE 15.12Z SUITE OF MODELS DO
PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE WITH THE ORIGINAL LOW OCCLUDING OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. PLACEMENT OF THIS NEW LOW REMAINS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION
AND THIS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST COOLER AIR MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, ALONG WITH POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL. AS OF NOW, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW,
BUT THAT CHANCE APPEARS TO BE DECREASING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
STRATUS THAT WAS SLOW TO CLEAR TODAY IS QUICKLY CONGEALING BACK
INTO A NEW MASS. THIS AND THE HIGH RH IT LEFT TODAY WILL CAUSE
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN FLIGHT CATS THIS EVENING AND MAKES THE
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REALLY TRICKY WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW
IT PLAYS OUT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR WILL BE AT BRD AND HIB
WITH SMALLER CHANCES ELSEWHERE, BUT NON-ZERO. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH
SHOULD HELP WITH VISIBILITIES. GUSTS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LLWS MAY ALSO SNEAK IN SATURDAY
MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AND INCREASING AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
AND MAY NECESSITATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SUNDAY MORNING AND BECOME
WESTERLY AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 25 KNOTS. A GALE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY DUE TO THESE WINDS. A STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ121-140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...BJH
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