228
FXUS63 KDLH 161733
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1133 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BECOMES DRY
AGAIN FOR MOST AREAS SUNDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL CHANCES BUILDING SOUTH TO NORTH
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT.
- MODERATE RAINFALL ON TUESDAY BECOMES MORE LOCALIZED WEDNESDAY
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, HIGHEST CHANCES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 40S THROUGH TUESDAY COOL TO
NORMAL IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
DEEP WESTERN TROUGHING BEGINS TO SPLIT INTO TWO DIFFERENT FLOW
REGIMES TODAY. THE NORTHERN STREAM CREATES A LOW PRESSURE THAT
ROTATES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. WARM AIR
ADVECTING NORTHWARD CREATES CONTINUED WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TODAY. AN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS
FORMS LATER TODAY TO BRING LIGHT RAINFALL BEGINNING THIS EVENING
FOR THE IRON RANGE TO ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, EXPECT A 20-30% CHANCE
OF A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE BORDERLANDS INTO SUNDAY.
NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THOUGH AS THE GROUND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW-40S AND RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE WARM GROUND TO AIR TEMPERATURES.
OUTSIDE OF THOSE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY, THE
REST OF THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BE DRY AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY
AND LASTING INTO MONDAY...ALL UNDER CONTINUED 40S FOR DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS BEGINS TO DEEPEN MONDAY
AS SOUTHERLY MOIST AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. THERE REMAINS HIGH CERTAINTY IN THAT LOW PRESSURE BEGINNING
TO BRING MODERATE RAINFALL TO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BEGINNING
MONDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO THIS SYSTEM
CREATING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN ANOMALOUS WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL, BUT NOT ON THE EXTREME SIDE OF TOTALS OR RATES FOR
MID-NOVEMBER. A FURTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM THOUGH KEEPS DECREASING THE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE
NORTHLAND FOR NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE WARM AIR WRAPS
UP WELL INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO TO KEEP ALL PRECIP TYPES AS
LIQUID RAIN AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN EVENTUAL INTRUSION OF COLDER MID-LEVEL
AIR ALONG THE GENERAL NORTHWEST BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE NOW
CENTERED IN THE GENERAL NE MN/ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR AREA. THE
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POTENTIAL THOUGH HIGHLY LIMITS ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS STILL EVEN AS THE WET SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASES
INTO WEDNESDAY DAYTIME.
THIS PROGGED ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP IS VERY LIKELY TO ALSO CREATE
AT LEAST SOME MIXED PRECIP TYPE INLAND LAKE AND LAKE SUPERIOR
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THOSE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS, RED LAKES, WINNIE, MILLE
LACS, ETC. SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATER NEXT WEEK OVER FUTURE FORECASTS IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS
AS THOSE CHANGES FROM BASE DETERMINISTIC NATIONAL BLEND POPS
COULD BE REQUIRED.
THAT COLDER AIRMASS FINALLY DROP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE
30S FOR THE NORTHLAND FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MIDDAY WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BRD, BUT ARE ONLY AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT
INL. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND ANY IMPACTS IS LOW AND HAVE
TREATED WITH VCSH WITH THIS UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WATCHING A RIBBON OF DENSE MARINE FOG BEGINNING TO FORM ON
SATELLITE. THE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE BAND OF FOG DRIFTING
AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE OVER THE LAST HALF-HOUR. A
SHORT-TERM DENSE FOG ADVISORY COULD STILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING
IF IT CONTINUES TO SETUP TOWARD THE DAYBREAK HOURS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON. BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF GRAND
MARAIS DUE TO THOSE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS SO A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THERE BEGINNING AT 4 PM TODAY.
FORECAST UPPER- AIR SOUNDINGS FROM HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING JUST OFF THE
SURFACE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE TODAY SO KEPT A LATER START TIME
FOR ADVISORIES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES OR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THOSE NEAR-SURFACE 25 KNOT
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE THE ADVISORY FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE COULD NEED TO BE BUMPED UP IN TIME. BY LATER TONIGHT
A COLDER AIRMASS SETS UP OVER THE LAKE TO INDUCE AREAWIDE
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WHICH COMBINES WITH A SHORT-LIVED
SOUTHWESTERLY JET BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BY LATER SUNDAY MORNING SO THE PREVIOUS GALE
WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING CURRENTLY COVERING PARTS OF
THE SOUTH SHORE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ABOUT 60% CHANCE OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE FAR NORTH SHORE WHERE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING COULD BE NEEDED IN
TIME. CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT LAST THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-141>145-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...NLY
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