959
FXUS63 KDLH 162145
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO MAINLY
NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT BEFORE DRYING OUT FOR MOST OF SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ARRIVES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL TURN COOLER TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THIS PUT THE NORTHLAND UNDER A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH WERE COMMON WITH A FEW GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT BRAINERD. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO
TODAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN A BIT AFTER SUNSET. AS THE LOW
LIFTS INTO WESTERN ONTARIO OVERNIGHT, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUNDAY MORNING. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG WITH SOME LOW 50S BY MONDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL SEE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY
EVENING. WITH A STRONG GULF CONNECTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION STARTING MONDAY EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS AS ALL RAIN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO
THE REGION. WHILE NOT RECORD BREAKING, RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE
HIGHER SIDE FOR MID-NOVEMBER. THE LOW TRACK HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
FROM EARLIER RUNS WHICH WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND IN THE WARM
SECTOR LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION AS RAINFALL AND LIMIT THE SNOW POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SOME MIX WILL BECOME POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW BECOMES OCCLUDED AND WRAPS IN SOME COOLER AIR. THIS
COULD ALSO PUT THE REGION INTO A DRY SLOT AS WELL, SO IN ANY
CASE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME LIGHTER BY THIS POINT. AS THE
ORIGINAL LOW OCCLUDES AND WEAKENS OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS, A NEW LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE OHIO
VALLEY AND TAKE OVER AS THE MAIN LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. QUESTION
STILL REMAINS AS TO WHERE THIS LOW WILL TRACK AND HOW FAR WEST
IT WILL RETROGRADE, BUT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION,
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OFF INTERIOR LAKES AND
LAKE SUPERIOR WITH THIS WIND TRAJECTORY THAT COULD LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AS COOLER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S BEFORE COOLING EVEN MORE INTO THE 30S BY
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MIDDAY WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT BRD, BUT ARE ONLY AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT
INL. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND ANY IMPACTS IS LOW AND HAVE
TREATED WITH VCSH WITH THIS UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE. SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 20 TO 30
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN RAMP UP SUNDAY MORNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. SOME GALES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE AND A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
THREAT. ANOTHER GALE WARNING MAY STILL BE NEEDED ALONG PARTS OF
THE NORTH SHORE, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS STILL REMAINS LOWER.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOLLOWING THE GALES SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-141>145-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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