340
FXUS63 KDLH 180459
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1059 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE
IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST TO AITKIN, PORTIONS OF THE IRON
RANGE, AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LIGHTER WINDS.
- A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TO THE NORTHLAND FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WINTRY MIX
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO LATE WEEK.
- STRONG EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ASOS REPORTS INDICATE FROST DEVELOPING IN AREAS WHERE THE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWEST. THE DIRECT DEPOSITION OF ICE ON
SURFACES IS LIMITING THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR FOG FORMATION.
STILL THINK THERE'S A POTENTIAL TO SEE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOP,
ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY NOW THAN WITH EARLIER FORECASTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING QUICKLY TONIGHT AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT. LOCATIONS WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS (3 TO 5
MPH) HAVE GREATER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THE TREND TOWARD LIGHTER
WIND SPEEDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEST TOWARD AITKIN AND ALSO NEAR
HIBBING AND EVELETH. MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE AT A
RISK OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, TOO. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
LAKE SUPERIOR INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN. EARLIER SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS ENDED WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS KEEPING WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH OVER THE NORTHLAND. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THIS GRADIENT
WILL RELAX ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND SKIES TO CLEAR. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOWS TONIGHT TO SETTLE INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S. MONDAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY SUNNY BUT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
AS THE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS WELL
AS SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH DAILY RECORDS
POSSIBLE AT BOTH INL AND MPX WITH FORECAST PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1
INCH. COUPLE THIS WITH TERRAIN AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE, AND YOU HAVE A RECIPE FOR 1-2" OF ACCUMULATION IN
THAT AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS WELL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE AROUND 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES. RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO QUICK RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND
RIVERS AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. MUCH OF THIS SHOULD INFILTRATE
INTO THE GROUND, BUT THERE MAY BE A DELAY IN SOME SPOTS THAT
HAVE BEEN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AS OF LATE.
AS THE LOW MOVES IN TO MINNESOTA EARLY TUESDAY, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND AROUND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY.
AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND WRAPS INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TUESDAY
NIGHT, THE STEADIER RAINFALL WILL END. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN AS WELL WITH WINTRY MIX SHOWERS BECOMING POSSIBLE AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN
THE 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS THEN ARRIVE FOR
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
ASOS STATIONS ARE REPORTING ICE ACCUMULATION FROM DIRECT
DEPOSITION WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT. THUS IT SEEMS THE FOG POTENTIAL IS LOWER NOW THAN IT WAS
A FEW HOURS AGO. STILL THINK A FEW OF THE TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR
VISIBILITY FOR A TIME MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST.
MAIN ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR
CEILINGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE RAIN LIFTS NORTH
INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, VISIBILITY
WILL DIP INTO MVFR. HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN MAY YIELD IFR
VISIBILITY. UPSLOPE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE, INCLUDING DLH, TWM, AND CKC, WILL LEAD TO IFR CIGS BEFORE
19.06Z. CEILINGS ELSEWHERE WILL LOWER INTO IFR LATER IN THE
NIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THEREFORE LOOK FOR MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND
PORTAGE ZONE UNTIL 4 AM. ALLOWED REMAINING ZONES TO EXPIRE AT 10
PM. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WERE STILL REPORTED AT ROCK OF AGES
AS OF 9 PM AND EXPECT AREAS BETWEEN GRAND PORTAGE AND ISLE
ROYALE WERE EXPERIENCING GUSTY WINDS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX OVERNIGHT AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
ANOTHER EXTENSION WILL BE REQUIRED. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 340 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WILL BE IN PLACE TO START MONDAY BEFORE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
TO APPROACH. THIS WILL TURN WINDS EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE THEM TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AT 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS. GALES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING
WESTERLY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140.
UPDATE...HUYCK
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...BJH
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