561
FXUS63 KDLH 181139
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
539 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGE INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM INCREASES EASTERLY WINDS LATE
THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY MID-DAY, WITH GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH FORECAST IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S LINGER TODAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE 30S BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
- VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
HIGHEST IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY WITH UP TO 2 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK HOURS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD, ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE
LOWER MIDWEST CONTINUING TO PUSH NORTHWARD. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT, EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE
UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S AREAWIDE AS SKY COVER SLOWLY INCREASES
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY LATER THIS EVENING
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND MUCH OF
THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. A WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE TWIN
PORTS INTO CENTRAL ST. LOUIS COUNTY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE
ARROWHEAD FOR THESE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH
MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY MID-DAY. GUSTS SLOWLY COME
DOWN LAST IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD IN SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY
LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW
FAR INLAND THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL ADVECT, BUT HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40
MPH AS FAR WEST AS HIBBING ALLOWED ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR THE CENTRAL ST. LOUIS ZONE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE ADVISORY.
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN THE TIP OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND
PARTS OF IRON COUNTY SEEING IMPACTFUL AND PROLONGED EASTERLY
GUSTS MORE THAN 40-45 MPH TONIGHT, THAT ZONE MAY HAVE TO BE
INCLUDED AS WELL IN FUTURE WIND ADVISORY UPDATES.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE DOES NOT ENTER THE NORTHLAND UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WHEN THE
RAINFALL CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG
SOUTHERLY MOIST AIR TAPPING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (FORECAST AROUND
1.25" IN DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AROUND THE TWIN
CITIES BREAKING PREVIOUS OBSERVED DAILY MAX OF 0.94" AT THE
CHANHASSEN UPPER AIR SITE FOR NOV 19 BASED ON ZULU TIME PER
STORM PREDICTION CENTER.....FORECAST AROUND 0.95" IN
INTERNATIONAL FALLS WOULD BREAK THE CURRENT OBSERVED DAILY MAX
OF 0.76" AT THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS UPPER AIR SITE FOR NOV 19)
BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING AND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS DEEP MOISTURE (APPROXIMATELY SEEN ON FORECAST MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM 925 MB UP TO 675 MB FOR ABOUT 8-16 HRS AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION) AND MULTIPLE VORTICITY LOBES SUPPORTING STRONG
FGEN BANDS KEEP RAINFALL RATES ELEVATED FOR A NON-CONVECTIVE
RAIN EVENT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL RATES OF 0.1 INCHES PER HOUR ARE
FORECAST, AND WHEN LINED UP WITH A RESIDENCE TIME OF 6-12 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST FOR MODERATE RAINFALL, KEEPS A FORECAST LEANING
TOWARDS 0.5-1 INCH OF RAIN FOR ALL PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRIPES OF 1-2" ARE
EXPECTED WHERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AROUND 0.25" PER
HOUR LINGER VERY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR INLAND PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS THROUGH THE ND/MN BORDER AREA TUESDAY
MORNING, RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DROP OFF SOUTH TO NORTH AS DRIER
AIR MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT APPLY TO THE
NORTH SHORE THOUGH WHEN THIS TIME PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY FOR
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
RIDGE OF SOUTHERN COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
WAS ISSUED FOR ST. LOUIS, COOK AND LAKE COUNTIES THIS MORNING
TALKING ABOUT THE EXPECTED STREAMFLOW IMPACTS FROM THIS
RAINFALL ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND MORE CAN ALSO BE READ IN THE
SUBSEQUENT HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW. FOR FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THOUGH IN THE NORTH SHORE, THERE IS 80-90% CHANCE OF 2" BY
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 3-4" HAVING A
20-40% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE. RAINFALL CHANCES TAPER QUICKLY
TUESDAY PM AS THE DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS WORKS NORTHWARD INTO
THE BORDERLANDS AND THE LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE MN/MB/ON
REGION.
CONTINUED WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH KEEPS THE NORTHLAND
IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME SO TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY REMAIN
EXPECTED TO BE QUITE WARM. DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FOR A FEW CLIMATE SITES IN THE
NORTHLAND, AND MORE DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE IN THE SUBSEQUENT
CLIMATE SECTION OF THE AFD BELOW.
COOLER WESTERLY AIR WORKS WESTWARD ON WRAP-AROUND FLOW LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO CREATE DECREASING
TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WILL ALSO
SEE A TRANSITION TO FIRST A WINTRY MIX (RAIN AND SNOW) FIRST IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THEN ALL SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
LINGERING DRY SLOT FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO THE
ARROWHEAD WEDNESDAY COULD HIGHLY LIMIT PRECIP SHOWER CHANCES
FOR THOSE ZONES AS THE WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS REMAIN LIMITED ALONG
A LINE FROM NORTHWEST MN TO EAST-CENTRAL MN TO INLAND WEST-
CENTRAL WI. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT REMAIN EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1" THOUGH.
A MORE FAVORABLE LAKE EFFECT SETUP BEGINS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GOGEBIC RANGE CURRENTLY
IS FORECAST FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER ALL OF THURSDAY.
THESE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY KIND OF
FUTURE WINTER WEATHER CONSIDERATIONS IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY.
LAKE EFFECT CHANCES END EARLY IN THE WEEKEND TO CREATE A DRY
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT POSSIBLE (20-40% PRECIP
CHANCES) DROPPING SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY.
THAT COOL AIR MASS LINGERS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO 20S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH 21Z
TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHWARD. SKY COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE 15-21Z TODAY, BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO MVFR UNTIL 21-03Z THIS EVENING FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AS THE RAIN SHIELD MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. RAINFALL
STARTS OUT AS SHOWERY AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY BAND ENTERING THE
REGION 04-09Z AND LINGERING AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH LIFR MOST LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT TERMINALS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR 06-18Z TUESDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING VEER EASTERLY AFTER A WARM
FRONT LIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATER INTO MID-DAY TODAY.
EASTERLY WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE IN SPEED AT THE HEAD THE LAKE BY
LATE AFTERNOON SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FIRST
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ARM TODAY. ALL OTHER NEARSHORE ZONES THEN
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES BY EARLY EVENING WHEN THE REST OF
THE ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT. AS THE STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 35 TO 45 KNOTS SPREAD SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY NIGHT, GALE
WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT. VERY LARGE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FEET
ARE FORECAST FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE NORTH SHORE AND IN THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE EASTERLY JET PASSES
NORTH OF THE WESTERN WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO THE CURRENT
GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE IN THE LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
TOMORROW. EXPECT LINGERING ELEVATED SWELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IS VERY LIKELY AT
LEAST ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AFTER THE WARNINGS ARE TAKEN DOWN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES FROM
THE HIGH TERRAIN RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. ONGOING
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2 PER DROUGHT MONITOR) CONDITIONS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY VERY LOW SOIL MOISTURE, PER NASA SPORT GUIDANCE,
WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE FIRST PART OF THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOAK INTO THE GROUND. EVENTUALLY THOUGH, RUNOFF
WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF THOSE HIGH TERRAIN ROCKY
BASINS. THIS RUNOFF WILL FEED CREEKS AND RIVERS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE THAT FLOW INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK HEADLINES WAS ISSUED AS WIDESPREAD, NOR IMPACTFUL,
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF THIS DOES BECOME THE
CASE THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, A FLOOD WATCH COULD
BECOME NECESSARY FOR EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED RUNOFF.
FOR IMPACTS INTO TUESDAY DAYTIME AND EVEN INTO LATER THIS MID-
WEEK TIME PERIOD, VISITORS TO RIVERS THAT ARE POPULAR FOR
WATERFALL VIEWING SHOULD BE CAREFUL DUE TO SLIPPERY ROCKS,
CLIFFS, AND STRONG CURRENTS. IF RECREATING TUESDAY OR POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY, HAVE A PLAN IN CASE LOW-LYING CAMPSITES HAVE STANDING
WATER AND TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BANKS OF RIVERS AND CREEKS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SEASONALLY VERY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AS
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS KEEP THE OVERNIGHT AIRMASS WELL-MIXED, NO
LESS THAN ONGOING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING UNDER PREVIOUSLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND DELAYED COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN THE WEST
HELPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THEN INTO THE PRE-MIDNIGHT
HOURS LATE MONDAY EVENING.
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
FORECAST CURRENT RECORDS
KDLH: 38 39/1982
KINL: 35 38/1982
KBRD: 35 37/2007
KASX: 41 39/1953
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ012-020-021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ019-037.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-141-142-147-148-150.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ121-143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ141-142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR LSZ143>146.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
HYDROLOGY...NLY
CLIMATE...NLY
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