950
FXUS63 KDLH 182129
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM INCREASES EASTERLY WINDS LATE
THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY MID-DAY, WITH GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH FORECAST IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE
GOGEBIC RANGE OF WI.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S LINGER TODAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING INTO THE 30S BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SYNOPTIC SETUP (THIS AFTERNOON/TOMORROW):
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LINGERING IMPACTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND IS
DRAWING IN GULF MOISTURE. LOOKING AT ALPW HIGHLIGHTS A DEEP
MOISTURE COLUMN FROM CONTRIBUTIONS OF BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND A PACIFIC CONNECTION. THIS HAS PUSHED THIS SYSTEM'S PWATS
TO NEAR THE MAX OF CLIMATOLOGY MOVING ACROSS TX AND UP INTO OK.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE UP THROUGH MN ON TUESDAY. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW ALSO LOOK TO BE QUITE STRONG WITH THE LOW EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 985MB. FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT HAS A RETURN
INTERVAL OF ONCE EVERY 10 YEARS. WITH ALL THESE FACTORS IN PLAY
THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT SOME WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN:
WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWEEP IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE
RAIN SHOWERS MANIFESTING AND MOVING NORTH. MODERATE RAINFALL RATES
WILL FORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME
INTERACTS WITH A 925MB FGEN RIBBON. THE HEAVIER RATES WILL START
TOMORROW MORNING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WHERE THE OROGRAPHIC
COMPONENT COMBINED WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY ENHANCED RAIN TOTALS. THE EFI ALONG THE NORTH SHORE HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND HAS AREAS ABOVE 0.99 WHICH IS GETTING
FAIRLY CLOSE TO ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BEING BEYOND THE MODEL CLIMATE.
WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE MADE SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
INCREASE THE TOTALS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 3-4"
POSSIBLE. WHILE THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 0.5-1" SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES
EXTENDING ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND UP THROUGH
CARLTON COUNTY. RAIN TAPERS OFF TUESDAY EVENING, BUT THERE MAY
STILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATER THIS WEEK WITH WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY WIND:
AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO CENTRAL MN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL INCREASE. MODEL TRENDS HAVE STEADILY
STRENGTHENED THE LOW OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OF CYCLE RUNS. THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH THE STRONGEST LOW IS SITTING AT
983MB. A WIND ADVISORY WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE ARROWHEAD
WITH NO CHANGES TO THAT HEADLINE. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION
TO ADDING NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WE
HAVE ADDED IRON COUNTY TO THE WIND ADVISORY. THE ROBUST WARM
CONVEYOR BELT WILL LEAD TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING.
THE HIGHER TERRAINS OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE COULD SEE SOME BLUSTERY
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SAWYER AND PRICE
COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW. THE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND HIGH WINDS AT
TIMES MAY MAKE COMMUTING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND PORTIONS OF
WI DIFFICULT TOMORROW. BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME FOR TRAVELING.
MIDWEEK FORECAST (SNOW?):
OUR PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES MOVES INTO MANITOBA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
A DRY SLOT WORKING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BECOMES ELONGATED WITH A STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY EXPECTED TO KICK
OFF ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER MI. COOL AIR WILL RUSH BACK INTO
THE NORTHLAND. OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE HIGHS AT OR BELOW
FREEZING WHILE FURTHER EAST WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WITH THE COLDER AIR IN PLAY AND WRAP AROUND REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW IN MANITOBA WE COULD SEE SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER,
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN FLUX AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE
DRY SLOT STILL IN QUESTION SNOW PROBABILITIES REMAIN VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW CONTINUE TO BOUNCE FROM 60% TO THE
LATEST FORECAST OF 40%.
THE OTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER MI WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR POTENTIALLY SETTING UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE
SOUTH SHORE LATER THIS WEEK. ENSEMBLES HAVE POOR AGREEMENT ON THE
TRACK OF THE LOW AFTER ITS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT BUT SOME OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT IT RETROGRADES TOWARDS
LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THIS SCENARIO COOL AIR AND MOISTURE WOULD ADVECT
OVER THE LAKE ALLOWING FOR THE LAKE EFFECT MACHINE TO TURN BACK ON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM
IS SET TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT TOMORROW. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM BUT WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED OVERNIGHT LEADING TO MINIMAL WIND SHEAR. EXPECT
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD
LIFR CEILINGS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ENTERING FROM THE SOUTH
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. EAST WINDS UPWARDS OF 40 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. GALE WARNINGS ARE OUT FOR ALL THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
THE NORTH SHORE WILL ALSO SEE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 14 FT WITH
HEIGHTS OCCASIONALLY REACHING 18FT. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE TOMORROW EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL TAKE ADDITIONAL TIME
TO DECREASE AND WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
AN INCOMING WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES FROM
THE HIGH TERRAIN RIDGE TO THE COASTAL PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO
LAST INTO LATE TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. ONGOING
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2 PER DROUGHT MONITOR) CONDITIONS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY VERY LOW SOIL MOISTURE, PER NASA SPORT GUIDANCE,
WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE FIRST PART OF THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOAK INTO THE GROUND. EVENTUALLY THOUGH, RUNOFF
WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS RAINFALL RATES UP TO 0.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF THOSE HIGH TERRAIN ROCKY
BASINS. THIS RUNOFF WILL FEED CREEKS AND RIVERS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE THAT FLOW INTO LAKE SUPERIOR. THE CURRENT HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK HEADLINES WAS ISSUED AS WIDESPREAD, NOR IMPACTFUL,
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IF THIS DOES BECOME THE
CASE THOUGH OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, A FLOOD WATCH COULD
BECOME NECESSARY FOR EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED RUNOFF.
FOR IMPACTS INTO TUESDAY DAYTIME AND EVEN INTO LATER THIS MID-
WEEK TIME PERIOD, VISITORS TO RIVERS THAT ARE POPULAR FOR
WATERFALL VIEWING SHOULD BE CAREFUL DUE TO SLIPPERY ROCKS,
CLIFFS, AND STRONG CURRENTS. IF RECREATING TUESDAY OR POTENTIALLY
WEDNESDAY, HAVE A PLAN IN CASE LOW-LYING CAMPSITES HAVE STANDING
WATER AND TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BANKS OF RIVERS AND CREEKS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
SEASONALLY VERY WARM LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TUESDAY AS
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS KEEP THE OVERNIGHT AIRMASS WELL-MIXED, NO
LESS THAN ONGOING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE OCCURRING UNDER PREVIOUSLY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION.
LINGERING CLOUDS AND DELAYED COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN THE WEST
HELPS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED THEN INTO THE PRE-MIDNIGHT HOURS
LATE MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE
INCREASED AND MAY RESULT IN SOME BROKEN RECORDS FOR DAILY RAIN
TOTALS.
WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
FORECAST CURRENT RECORDS
KDLH: 38 39/1982
KINL: 36 38/1982
KBRD: 36 37/2007
KASX: 41 39/1953
PRECIPITATION
NOVEMBER 19:
FORECAST CURRENT RECORDS
KDLH: 1.81 1.23/1983
KINL: 0.92 0.49/1975
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ012-020-021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ019-037.
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
WIZ003-004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR LSZ121-141-142-147-148-150.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ121-143>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ141-142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ143>146.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
HYDROLOGY...NLY
CLIMATE...BRITT
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