633
FXUS63 KDLH 191757
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1157 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW, AROUND AN INCH, MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SNOW SQUALLS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- TODAY WILL BE THE LAST WARM DAY BEFORE A COOL DOWN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE WELL-ADVERTISED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STAY
LARGELY ON TRACK GIVING PLENTY OF RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES, WINDS HAVE SO FAR UNDERPERFORMED. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT
ADVISORY SUITE WILL BE MAINTAINED, WITH A FEW HOURS TRIMMED OFF
THE BACK END.
THIS MATURE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD
TODAY, REACHING SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE
NORTHLAND. BY EVENING, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN. AS
THE LOW REACHES WINNIPEG, IT WILL STALL TEMPORARILY BEFORE
RAPIDLY DEEPENING INTO A NEW SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS DEVELOPMENT OCCURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ELONGATES,
CREATING A NEW VORTICITY CENTER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THAT
EXHIBITS A FUJIWARA-LIKE INTERACTION. THE STRETCHING OF
ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS WILL RETROGRADE THE NEW LOW WESTWARD,
STALLING NEAR GREEN BAY BY THURSDAY BEFORE AN APPROACHING UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES IT BACK EAST.
AS COLDER AIR SEEPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, ANY REMAINING
MOISTURE FROM THE ORIGINAL WEAKENING LOW MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA ON WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY LEAVING A
LIGHT COATING. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER LIGHTS UP A BIT ON ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE PRESENTATION ON THE HRRR DOES LOOK A BIT
SQUALLY. MEANWHILE, THE RETROGRADING "GREEN BAY" LOW COULD
BRING WRAP- AROUND SNOW TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY, WITH
A COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE, TAPERING
WESTWARD. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT HOW FAR WEST THIS
LOW WILL TRACK; A MORE EASTERLY POSITION COULD ELIMINATE SNOW
CHANCES ALTOGETHER. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE LOW WILL CENTER
NEAR GREEN BAY.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF,
INTRODUCING COLDER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. WHILE UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDS SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
FALL AS SNOW. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. A MIX OF LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST
FORECAST TERMINALS, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE BRD AND HYR, WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; OTHERWISE, MVFR CIG HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT, WIND SPEEDS OF 10-18KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 32KS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING,
BUT EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-120KTS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
A STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM MINNESOTA INTO
MANITOBA TODAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. EAST WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 45
KNOTS, WITH GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS.
WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 9 TO 14
FEET, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 18 FEET.
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING BY MIDDAY FOR MOST AREAS,
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE NEAR GRAND MARAIS AND POINTS NORTH BY
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR A
LONGER PERIOD. PERSISTENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REQUIRE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY LASTING
INTO SATURDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>148-150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...WOLFE
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