118
FXUS63 KDLH 192237
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
437 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN DECREASES THIS EVENING, COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH IN SPOTS
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THERE UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT
HEADS BACK SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS BEFORE BEING ABSORBED INTO A
DEEPENING LOW WELL TO THE EAST. AREA RADARS SHOWED DRIZZLE/LIGHT
RAIN DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND THAT TREND WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR WILL OVERTAKE THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT ON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND, ROUGHLY FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES AND MILLE LACS LAKE
AREAS NORTH TO CRANE LAKE AND INTERNATIONAL FALLS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS WEDNESDAY, CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND, MAINLY
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
A DUSTING TO PERHAPS AN INCH OCCURRING, HIGHEST OVER FAR WESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE REGION
NOW WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AND IT WILL
RETROGRADE WEDNESDAY NIGHT CAUSING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND, INCLUDING THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THE LOW IS PRETTY WELL FORECAST BY THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF ECMWF/GFS WITH IT CENTERED OVER
OR VERY CLOSE TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 18Z THURSDAY WITH IT
MOVING FURTHER SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME
LAKE CONTRIBUTION TO THE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BUT
WARMER AIR WILL ALSO BE WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE WILL
BE SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH BECOMES A SNOW/RAIN MIX
OR JUST RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION LOOKS TO BE
LIGHT FOR MOST BUT THE SNOWBELT OF IRON COUNTY COULD GET 1-2".
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS, ABOUT 10%, FOR 4" OR
GREATER IN THE SNOWBELT. CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN WILL
LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER AND FUTURE
UPDATES MAY END UP GOING THAT WAY TOO.
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND
FREEZING TO THE UPPER THIRTIES THEM ROUGHLY THE SAME INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA. A MIX OF LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN ACROSS MOST
FORECAST TERMINALS, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE BRD AND HYR, WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON; OTHERWISE, MVFR CIG HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST. WITH THE
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT, WIND SPEEDS OF 10-18KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 32KTS ARE POSSIBLE. WIND DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING,
BUT EXPECT GUSTS OF 15-120KTS OVERNIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 437 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
GALE FORCES GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT
WILL TAKE WAVES SOME TIME TO DIMINISH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE.
THE LOWER WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THEN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ121.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ141>146.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ147-148-150.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...MELDE
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