216
FXUS63 KDLH 200746
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
146 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
AN INCH NEAR THE BRAINED LAKES AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
SNOWBELT WITH A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH ELSEWHERE.
- COLDER, BUT MORE SEASONABLE, TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
EVEN THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
- NORTHWEST GALES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING ON LAKE
SUPERIOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
COLDER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING, DRIVEN BY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WRAPPING AROUND A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR
THE BRAINERD LAKES AND INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREAS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH A DUSTING TO AROUND ONE
INCH. AS THE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
TODAY, ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THOUGH SNOW IN THE AIR WILL BE
POSSIBLE TO SOME DEGREE ALMOST EVERYWHERE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY
FURTHER AND RETROGRADE WEST TONIGHT, INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN NORTHLAND, INCLUDING THE ARROWHEAD REGION
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECAST MODELS,
INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS, NOW PLACE THE LOW CENTER NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, WITH FURTHER MOVEMENT
SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS MOVES THE AXIS OF HIGHEST
SNOWFALL A TAD EAST THUS HAVE LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE SNOW BELT TONIGHT. LAKE-ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE IS STILL POSSIBLE, BUT WARMER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW COULD BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR JUST RAIN
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST
AREAS, THOUGH THE SNOWBELT OF IRON COUNTY COULD SEE 1–2 INCHES,
WITH A 10% CHANCE OF LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES.
LIGHT RAIN MAY PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MODELS ARE TRENDING
DRIER, SO FUTURE UPDATES MAY REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CHILLY, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM AROUND FREEZING TO THE UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS POTENTIALLY GIVING A COATING
OF SNOW TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
LARGELY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS
OF IFR EXPECTED AND DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO HIT TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KINL. AS SNOW SHOWERS BECOME MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD COULD SEE SOME MORE IFR FROM THEM. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
START GUSTY BUT DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THEY TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 135 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 4 FEET THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE. PERSISTENT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REQUIRE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY LASTING
INTO SATURDAY. GALE FORCES NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR LSZ140>143-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ141>148-150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...WOLFE
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