606
FXUS63 KDLH 210554
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1154 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS
TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR WINNIPEG THIS AFTERNOON WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON RADAR ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA.
IMPACTS FROM THESE SNOW SHOWERS WAS MINIMAL ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND, BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS WERE LEADING TO SLICK ROADS
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER WINNIPEG WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
RETROGRADES TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOMES NEARLY VERTICALLY
STACKED BY THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME CONFINED TO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE TRENDED WARMER WHICH
WILL LEAD TO MORE RAIN AND RAIN/SNOW MIX THAN EARLIER FORECASTS.
AS SUCH, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH UP TO
AN INCH BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE IRON COUNTY SNOWBELT BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY BEFORE GOING TO ALL RAIN. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S WEST TO LOWER 40S EAST WITH SOME MID 40S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY THROUGH
THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO NOSE IN FROM THE WEST
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION, SO LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES
INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH 30S FOR ALL ON SATURDAY.
A SLOW MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, PRIMARILY ON SUNDAY. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE NORTHLAND. COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK. LOW CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST, BUT NOTHING OVERLY
ORGANIZED IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CATS TONIGHT BEFORE A DESCENT BACK
TOWARDS IFR BY SUNRISE THROUGH MIDDAY. THINKING IFR CHANCES ARE
AROUND 40%. WINDS WILL ACCELERATE FROM THE NW BECOMING QUITE
GUSTY TO 35 TO 40 KT THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING IN INTENSITY IN THE EVENING. CONSIDERED ADDING LLWS,
BUT IT SEEMS SHEAR IS UNIDIRECTIONAL ENOUGH TO BE BELOW
CRITERIA.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIDESPREAD GALES ARE NOW EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR STARTING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY SATURDAY
AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148-
150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...BJH
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