836
FXUS63 KDLH 151748
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING AND AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW UP TO 2" IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH OCCASIONAL SNOW
CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
AREA WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW FREEZING FOG/LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE PERSISTING IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING, LEADING TO LIGHT GLAZES
OF ICE. THEREFORE, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CASS, CROW
WING, AND AITKIN COUNTIES WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON AND DRIER AIR
WORKING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD LEAD TO AN END OF
THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AWAY FROM THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS
HIGHLANDS. THESE LATTER REGIONS SHOULD SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE
CONTINUE TO MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN LIGHT ONSHORE/UPSLOPE
FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE
FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DULUTH AREA AND UP THE NORTH SHORE.
IN FACT, THE DENSE FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT, AS WELL. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
TODAY AND TONIGHT (LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DENSE FOG):
THIS MORNING, WE ARE ESSENTIALLY LIVING WITHIN A BOWL OF FROZEN
SOUP. THAT IS, WE HAVE SOME AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SEEN ON
RADAR AND CONFIRMED BY MNDOT REPORTS OF PARTIALLY OR EVEN
COMPLETELY COVERED BY ICE IN SOME AREAS. IN ADDITION,
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED DUE TO FOG. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED
TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. WITH A BIT OF DRY AIR FILLING IN FROM THE TOP DOWN
GRADUALLY THROUGH TODAY, THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO END THROUGH THIS MORNING (AT LEAST FOR AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR). FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY, AND SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND OR LESS THAN 50% FOR MOST PLACES.
THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS HIGHLANDS WILL BE A BIT OF AN
EXCEPTION TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WE RETAIN THE PERSISTENT LIGHT
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW. WE WILL LOSE THE FREEZING DRIZZLE THREAT
AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER
AIR ALOFT SHRINKS THE NEAR-SURFACE SATURATED LAYER (AND ALSO
TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING THIS
AFTERNOON). HOWEVER, HREF PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE OR LESS ARE 80-100% TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THEREFORE, WE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR THE
TWIN PORTS THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING AND UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR
THE REST OF THE NORTH SHORE (LATER THERE AS WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND KEEPING THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW GOING
THERE THE LONGEST). IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THERE ARE SOME
~60-90% HREF PROBABILITIES FOR SOME DENSE FOG A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTHWEST AS WELL TODAY, ROUGHLY FROM MOOSE LAKE TO MORA, AND
THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN ST.
CROIX RIVER VALLEY. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA IN CASE ANY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPS THERE, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T QUITE
HIGH ENOUGH RIGHT NOW TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES.
TONIGHT, WE COULD SEE A BIT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION REDEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES. WE SHOULD START TO SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION TREND
TOWARDS SNOW BY MORNING AS WINDS SLOWLY BECOME WESTERLY AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT (LIGHT SNOW):
THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT TRENDING TO ALL SNOW
THROUGH THE MORNING AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY WELL IN AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL
PASS ROUGHLY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE ATTENDANT SNOW
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN MINNESOTA THE MOST WITH UP TO 2" OF SNOW.
LESSER AMOUNTS AROUND OR BELOW 0.5" ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF US 2.
WINDS BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. WE WILL HAVE SOME
PRETTY BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH REGIONWIDE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BIT OF
BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY (COLDER AND MOSTLY DRY):
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A
PASSING TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH MAY BRING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY EARLY EVENING, BUT WITH AMOUNTS
LESS THAN AN INCH. OTHERWISE, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ASIDE FROM PERHAPS SOME LIGHT LAKE-
EFFECT IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH
LOWS FALLING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR SOME PLACES AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY (POTENTIAL CLIPPER SYSTEM):
WHO OUT THERE IS FEELING CHIPPER ABOUT ANOTHER CLIPPER? IT'S
LOOKING LIKE WE MIGHT GET ONE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH
THERE REMAIN PLENTY OF TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES RIGHT
NOW. MOISTURE CONTENT DOESN'T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY PACK A BIT OF A PUNCH IN TERMS OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
(POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPENING AND COMPACT LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION). SO, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP OUR EYE ON
THIS ONE FOR POTENTIALLY SHOVELABLE ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION.
NEXT WEEKEND (WE STAY SEASONABLY COLD):
FOLLOWING THE POTENTIAL FRIDAY CLIPPER, WE MAY GET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, KEEPING THE WEATHER SEASONABLY COLD
(OR PERHAPS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE-WISE).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH DLH LOOKS TO BE SOCKED INTO VLIFR CEILINGS
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOG PERSISTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS
WELL. THOUGH MOST TERMINALS WON'T SEE DENSE FOG PERSISTING ASIDE
FROM DLH THROUGH TONIGHT, OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES FALLING TO
AROUND 1/2 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON, THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AT DLH SHOULD DIMINISH.
SOME LIGHT SNOW WORKS INTO THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS (UP TO 2 INCHES) AT
INL. SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY START AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX THIS
EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL SEE GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY, VEER
TO SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND WESTERLY TOWARDS THE VERY END OF
THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND
GUSTS INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS TODAY AND TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME AREAS OF FOG, MAINLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, THOUGH DENSE
FOG ISN'T EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GOING INTO MONDAY, AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER SYSTEM, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND PICK UP IN SPEED THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, AND SOME GALES TO 35 KT ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING TO
BAYFIELD ALONG THE PENINSULA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (90-100%
CHANCE) THAT 25 KT WINDS WILL HAPPEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, SO WE
ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES. A GALE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
AROUND THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA WHERE A PERIOD OF 35 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 4 TO 7
FEET ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THIS TIME PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
CHANGING TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THE CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY, WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ020-021-037.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ025-
033>036.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ121-140>145-148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ146-
147-150.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ146-147-150.
UPDATE...JDS
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...JDS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page