245
FXUS63 KDLH 162137
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WATER ON ROADS COULD FREEZE FROM TEMPERATURES
REACHING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
- A QUICK BURST OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- HEAVIER SNOW WILL COME ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LEAVE
WIDESPREAD SNOW OF OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WINTRY MIX FROM EARLIER TODAY IS OR WILL SHORTLY BEGIN FALLING
AS SNOW AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE BACK END OF A LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN ONTARIO. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY FREEZING ANY WATER ON UNTREATED ROADS
OVERNIGHT AND COULD AFFECT THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE (UP TO 50%) FOR MORE SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LESS MOISTURE AND A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL
TOTALS BEING AN INCH OR LESS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A NICE AND DEEP DGZ
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE BEST FORCING IS FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES, TOTALS ABOVE 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY
(80%) ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND AREAS IN AND SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE IN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING
SOUTH WITH EVERY MODEL RUN, SO THE AREA OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL
COULD YET SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH.
SATURDAY, YET ANOTHER WEAK, FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT BY
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
FOG HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING BUT MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS HAVE PERSISTED AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR TO IFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR AT DLH, HIB AND INL MAINLY THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING. VISIBILITIES WILL THEN REMAIN VFR
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS TURN WESTERLY IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT AND WILL BE GUSTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SOME OF THE GUSTINESS
SHOULD SUBSIDE TUESDAY MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
NOSE INTO THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AS WELL AS GALES ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE AND AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR TUESDAY,
UP TO 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. ON AND OFF SNOW CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-143>145-
148.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>142.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
147-150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...KML
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