963
FXUS63 KDLH 170538
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WATER ON ROADS COULD FREEZE FROM TEMPERATURES
REACHING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
- A QUICK BURST OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- HEAVIER SNOW WILL COME ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LEAVE
WIDESPREAD SNOW OF OVER 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WINTRY MIX FROM EARLIER TODAY IS OR WILL SHORTLY BEGIN FALLING
AS SNOW AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ON THE BACK END OF A LOW
PRESSURE IN WESTERN ONTARIO. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN INTO TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY FREEZING ANY WATER ON UNTREATED ROADS
OVERNIGHT AND COULD AFFECT THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW, COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE (UP TO 50%) FOR MORE SNOW TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LESS MOISTURE AND A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL
TOTALS BEING AN INCH OR LESS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DUE TO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT/EFFECT LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER DIVING SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A NICE AND DEEP DGZ
THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL COLUMN WILL LEAD TO HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THE BEST FORCING IS FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARDS THE TWIN CITIES, TOTALS ABOVE 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY
(80%) ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND AREAS IN AND SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE IN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING
SOUTH WITH EVERY MODEL RUN, SO THE AREA OF HIGHEST SNOWFALL
COULD YET SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH.
SATURDAY, YET ANOTHER WEAK, FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL SKIRT BY
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE LIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS WITH SOME IFR CIGS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE RETURNING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION AND ARE
LARGELY EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
FORECASTED BUT THE GUSTY WINDS MAY IMPACT VIS AT TIMES DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW. A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY MAY CAUSE
SOME IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CST MON DEC 16 2024
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AS WELL AS GALES ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE AND AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR TUESDAY,
UP TO 20 KT GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS. ON AND OFF SNOW CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-143>145-
148.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>142-146-147-150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...LE/WOLFE
MARINE...KML
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