212
FXUS63 KDLH 171712
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1112 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- HEAVIER SNOW WILL COME ON THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LEAVE A
WIDESPREAD PATH OF SNOW OF 3 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT
THESE WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.
- THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCE OF SNOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED
A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS OVER THE NORTHLAND. THERE ARE SOME WEAK
RADAR RETURNS OVER THE ARROWHEAD, AND WHILE I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
SNOW REPORTS IN THE OBS, A FEW WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING FLURRIES THIS
MORNING. A CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TODAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO MOSTLY SOUTHERN MN,
BUT A SECOND, WEAKER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT, BRINGING A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THIS
CLIPPER AND LIMITED MOISTURE, AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED. LAKE EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING A MORE
POTENT CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, AND WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS, AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE HAS BEEN DECREASING AS WELL.
THESE TRENDS HAVE PRODUCED A REDUCTION IN THE TOTAL SNOWFALL
EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHLAND, AS WELL AS WHERE THE TRACK OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. PROBABILITIES FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES HAS BEEN
DROPPING IN GENERAL, AND ARE NOW HIGHEST ALONG A LINE FROM GRAND
FORKS THROUGH HINCKLEY, AND ARE NO HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT. IN
GENERAL, I DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR HIGHER PRECIPITATION
TOTALS, THOUGH THE HI-RES MODELS MAY HAVE A DIFFERENT IDEA ONCE
WE GET INTO THE TIME RANGE FOR THOSE. FOR NOW, THIS APPEARS TO
BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL CLIPPER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHLAND.
BEHIND THAT CLIPPER WE SHOULD GET A SHOT OF COLDER AIR, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING NEAR TO BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA AND AS LONG AS WE LOSE CLOUD COVER THE FRESH SNOW
WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER MAY PUSH SOME CLOUD COVER OUR DIRECTION
WHICH WOULD PUT A FLY IN THAT OINTMENT AND HAVE LEFT OVERNIGHT
LOWS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR NOW.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS ARE BRINGING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND TRACK IS LOW, SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW FOR NOW, AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT HIB AND
INL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AFFECTING VISIBILITIES AT BRD, DLH, AND
HYR. SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY MAY BE SPURRED BY THAT AREA OF SNOW FOR
HIB AND INL, LASTING INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 443 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
NORTHWEST GALES IN THE WAKE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE TODAY, AND I ANTICIPATE BEING ABLE TO DROP THE GALE
WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY MID MORNING, THEN ALLOWING
THOSE TO EXPIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WAVES,
LARGEST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WILL ALSO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE THE NORTHWEST WIND
SPEEDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, AND CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ANOTHER
CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THE
LAKE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
141-147-150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LE
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