709
FXUS63 KDLH 172016
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
216 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, TRANSITIONING INTO A SHORT PERIOD OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW THURSDAY WITH A
WIDESPREAD 3 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE.
- QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER TO END THE WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WARM UP
LOOKING LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOME AREAS OF FLURRIES CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNDER WIDESPREAD OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, GETTING INTO THE
LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE CROSSING SOUTHERN MN AND WI THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
SHOULD THROW UP A LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION OUR WAY AND MEET UP WITH
SOME VORTICITY ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH, BUT FOLKS
MAY WAKE UP TO A FRESH DUSTING TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME GUSTS APPROACHING 40MPH.
WITH COLD AIR INFILTRATING AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE LAKE
EFFECT MACHINE TO START UP THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, DELIVERING
SOME MORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE. EXPECT
A HALF TO ONE INCH OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY AND UP TO 3-4
INCHES IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY.
THURSDAY: A STOUT CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, NOSING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
MN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OVERSPREADING THE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES (30 TO 75%) FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES
OR MORE IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
FROM THE TWIN PORTS THROUGH LAKE COUNTY. THERE IS STILL LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY AS HI-RES MODEL RUNS HAVE
STARTED TO EXTEND INTO THAT TIME RANGE. WHILE ENSEMBLE LOW
PLACEMENTS ARE IMPROVING AND HONING IN ON A TRACK FALLING SOMEWHERE
FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, SOME OF THE LATEST CAMS HAVE
BEEN COMING IN WITH A MORE NORTHERN TRACK, PUSHING THE BULLSEYE OF
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS BACK TOWARDS THE TWIN PORTS AND FARTHER
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS TRACK WILL ALSO HAVE A COMPOUNDING
EFFECT ON THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND TWIN PORTS,
WHICH COULD MEAN A MUCH HIGHER LOCAL AMOUNT SHOULD THAT HI-RES
SOLUTION PANE OUT. DUE TO THESE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES, HAVE LEFT
NBM POPS RIDE FOR NOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WHICH SEEM TO BE A HAPPY
MEDIUM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A GOOD LOW LEVEL
FGEN BAND SHOULD MATERIALIZE TO ENHANCE A SYNOPTIC BAND OF SNOW
WHEREVER IT DOES FINALLY SHOW UP. WHILE MUCH OF THE EVENT SHOULD BE
A SOLID WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TYPE SYSTEM, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
THAT THIS FGEN BAND COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED BAND OF NEAR 6 INCHES.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND: SOME RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN
FRIDAY, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME CLEARING SKIES AND TANKING
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE WISH-WASHY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LITTLE CLIPPER TO DIVE SOUTH SATURDAY, AND PLACEMENT IS STILL
ANYWHERE FROM NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA, WITH SOME MODELS HAVING
IT FIZZLE OUT ENTIRELY BEFORE IT GETS TO US.
NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PICK UP ON THE CHANCE FOR A
WEAK CUT OFF LOW TO SPIN OVER THE AREA MONDAY, WHICH COULD BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WHILE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE UNCLEAR, THERE IS A ROBUST SIGNAL FOR A WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME TO MOVE IN, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING OVER FREEZING (A COUPLE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS EVEN SUGGEST
REACHING 40F) ON CHRISTMAS AND THROUGH THE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
PREDOMINANT MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
SITES. SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT HIB AND
INL THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING, AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTH AFFECTING VISIBILITIES AT BRD, DLH, AND
HYR. SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY MAY BE SPURRED BY THAT AREA OF SNOW FOR
HIB AND INL, LASTING INTO MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
CONTINUE.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF STRONG
DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND
PORTAGE. WE'VE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10AM WEDNESDAY
FOR THESE STRONG WINDS, AND DEPENDING ON TRENDS, A GALE WARNING MAY
BE NEEDED. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW, BECOMING EASTERLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A QUICK ROUND OF
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST
AGAIN INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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