347  
FNUS73 KDLH 181723  
FWSDLH  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR TOFTE COMPOUND PILE...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN  
1123 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 CST ON DECEMBER 19.  
IF THERE ARE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST, OR IF  
CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL  
WEATHER SERVICE IN DULUTH AT 218-729-0653.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TOMORROW WILL BE CLOUDY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED. SNOW WILL  
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES, BUT FAIRLY LIGHT AND FLUFFY IN  
NATURE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE  
STEADY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 2 MPH. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN AND  
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE. SMOKE  
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW LIKELY IN THE  
MORNING, THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 25.  
MIN HUMIDITY........74 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 9 TO 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 21  
MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 12 MPH  
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 21 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 15 TO 22 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (26000-42800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING  
TO GOOD (36200-52300 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE  
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.21 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CST) 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY  
WEATHER COV.....CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 60 60 70 70 70 80 80 70 70  
TEMP............19 20 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 24  
RH..............77 81 77 81 81 84 84 84 81 81 81  
20 FT WIND DIR..E SE SE SE E E E E E E NE  
20 FT WIND SPD..8 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.8 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E SE SE E E E E E E NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 17 21 22 21 21 21 21 21 20 20  
SDSPL KT-FT/100026 27 43 49 49 50 52 50 48 42 36  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). SNOW LIKELY  
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN CHANCE OF SNOW LATE  
IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW  
OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 10 ABOVE.  
MAX HUMIDITY........81 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 12 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHWEST AROUND 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 18 TO 20 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD (18100-31300 KNOT-FT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.04 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY COVER.......CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY MC MC MC MC PC PC MCR  
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN SN  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 60 60 50 50 50 20 20 20 10 10 10  
TEMP............24 24 23 22 21 21 21 20 18 16 15 14  
RH..............77 74 74 74 74 71 68 67 67 70 67 64  
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE N N N N N N N N N N  
20 FT WIND SPD..11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11  
20 FT WIND GUST.21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 26 27 28 28  
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE N N N N N N N N N N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 20 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 18  
SDSPL KT-FT/100031 29 28 26 26 26 25 23 21 18 18 18  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 17.  
MIN HUMIDITY........56 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 16 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 29 MPH  
EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (18000-24800 KNOT-FT).  
PCPN AMOUNT.........0.00 INCHES.  
 
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY COVER.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............13 12 10 10 11 12 13 14 16 16 15 14  
RH..............64 66 73 73 69 66 64 61 56 56 58 58  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..16 15 12 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.26 23 22 20 16 15 15 14 15 15 15 16  
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW N  
TRANSP WIND SPD.18 18 18 17 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 15  
SDSPL KT-FT/100018 19 19 20 22 23 24 24 24 25 22 19  
 

 
FORECASTER...KETZEL  
REQUESTED BY...ZACH KELLERMAN  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2428695.0/DLH  
.DELDT 12/18/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL ZACHARY.KELLERMAN@USDA.GOV  
 
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