279
FXUS63 KDLH 200908
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ON THE SOUTH SHORE WILL TAPER OFF
THIS MORNING.
- CHILLY WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS BELOW ZERO, COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- A CLIPPER MAY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
DRY AND COLD AIR IS QUICKLY FILTERING IN WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, WHILE LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE. AS WINDS CONTINUE
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY, THE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW WILL PIVOT
EAST TOWARDS IRON COUNTY BY SUNRISE, THEN TAPER OFF TO JUST
CLOUDS OR FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO BE PLENTIFUL TODAY FOR THE MOST PART,
BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MIXING TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS IN PLACES. A JET MAX OVER
THE DAKOTAS/MONTANA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY,
AND AN ATTENDANT SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WAVES WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF MINNESOTA, AND PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AROUND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING (ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH).
FOR TONIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT
WITH A COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO, WITH THE COLDEST
LOWS AROUND THE ARROWHEAD WHERE THE CHANCES FOR CLOUDS IS
LOWEST. WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. WHILE CHANCES ARE
LOW (10% OR LESS), IT WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISING TO SEE SOME
LAKE-EFFECT FLURRIES AROUND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH
THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE. BUT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE ANY POPS AT THIS POINT.
WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS SATURDAY WITH AN AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
TROUGH PASSING BY, WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW.
WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND WE'LL LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 20S ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DUE TO AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. THIS CLIPPER MAY HAVE
SOME DECENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PWATS 0.4"-0.6"), BUT IT
SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH PRETTY QUICKLY. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE OUT FOR SOME FGEN BANDING THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME ADVISORY-
LEVEL SNOWS LOCALLY, BUT OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY
TYPICAL AND NOT-TOO-THREATENING CLIPPER THAT COULD BRING THE
USUAL 1-3 INCHES FOR SOME PARTS OF THE REGION SOMETIME AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BROAD RIDGING IS LOOKING MOST LIKELY ON CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY, KEEPING THE WEATHER GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD
(HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S).
THE RIDGING MAY BREAK DOWN GOING INTO THURSDAY, AND THERE ARE
HINTS AT A DEEPER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN SETTING UP OVER
THE MIDWEST. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO END
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
LIGHT SNOW WAS DIMINISHING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT WAS STILL
WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE SOUTH SHORE WILL SEE HEAVIER
SNOW DUE TO LAKE PROCESSES WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO A HALF
MILE AND SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR IN A
BAND OF SNOW MOVES THROUGH. THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO
BE MOVING, ONLY STAYING OVER ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS.
AS THE SNOW DIMINISHES CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO LOW VFR OVER
MANY LOCALES. THAT TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AS CLOUDS CLEAR OR THIN THAT IFR
CEILINGS MAY FORM. THE HREF/SREF CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT WON'T
HAPPEN WITH CHANCES AT LESS THAN 30%. FOR NOW, WE JUST ADDED A
MENTION OF IFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT WILL
MONITOR UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE.
WINDS WILL BACK TO NORTH THEN NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MID-MORNING, THEN LIGHTEN UP THROUGH MID-DAY AND THIS
AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT PERSIST AROUND THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA AND OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS
WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT WITH GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY GOING INTO SATURDAY, AND SOME
WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT AND WAVES UP TO AROUND 4 FT (20-30%
CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
WIZ001-002.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ003-
004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140>143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ144-145.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...MELDE
MARINE...JDS
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