908
FXUS63 KDLH 210532
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1132 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY TEMPS TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING TO NEAR ZERO TO TEENS
BELOW ZERO, COLDEST IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- A CLIPPER MAY BRING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOCATION OF THE MOST IMPACTFUL SNOW
IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE RATHER NARROW.
- GENERALLY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MIDDLE TO LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-650 MB LAYER MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE QUESTIONS
WHETHER ANY SNOWFLAKES WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP TO TO THE GROUND
WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR LAYER. A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES, AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT FROM
LATE MORNING TO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN BOTH CASES ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS.
NOT AS COOL SATURDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PERSISTS. A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL RIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF THAT
TROUGH WILL BE LARGELY UNEVENTFUL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY TREND WARMER
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 20S.
ANOTHER COMPACT TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
FEATURE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THAT SYSTEM. NEARLY ALL
PRODUCE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE LOCATION VARIES FROM NORTHWEST
ONTARIO TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. OVERALL A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THAT SYSTEM. IT WILL BE RELATIVELY
MOISTURE STARVED WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS, UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE
POSSIBLE. WHEREVER THAT SNOW FALLS MAY SEE IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
ON BOXING DAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. TOWARD THE END OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
ROUNDS OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN, SNOW,
AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. IT'S FAR TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT
SPECIFIC TIMING OR AMOUNTS AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE AS IS EXPECTED AT 7 TO 9 DAYS FROM THE
CURRENT TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST. THERE IS SOME MVFR CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE SOUTH
SHORE AND COULD IMPACT HYR/DLH. BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH RES MODELS
SUGGEST THAT SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL POPULATE OVER INL LATER
TONIGHT. SHOULD THIS FOG DEVELOP IT MAY QUICKLY BECOME IFR OR LOWER
AND WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE ON TAP TODAY AS
WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE REGION AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE.
THIS SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE WIND WILL REMAIN AT OR LOWER THAN 15 KNOTS
SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR MOST AREAS INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE MAY SEE WINDS
AND WAVES STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...HUYCK
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