893
FXUS63 KDLH 211732
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
- WEAK CLIPPER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BRING A DUSTING
TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
- QUIET WEATHER FOR CHRISTMAS WITH A WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH
FRIGID TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SAUNTER OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND AND TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE
TEENS. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS OUR FAR WEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS IS
EXPECTED TO SUBLIMATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF FALLING SNOW KEEPING
AMOUNTS DOWN TO A TRACE AT BEST.
ONE OTHER FEATURE WORTH NOTING THIS MORNING IS A CONVERGENT SNOW
BAND THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AT THE HEAD OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. RADAR TRENDS HAVE HELD THIS FEATURE TOGETHER FOR THE
PAST 1HR AND 30 MINUTES WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT. HIGH RES WIND
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THIS BAND STAYS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TAKE IT ON A TRIP
ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT:
THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SEE SOME INCREASED
SATURATION IN THE LOWER LEVELS BEGINNING IN THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS A STILL SLIGHTLY WARM LAKE SUPERIOR (5C)
WILL LEAD TO SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR OFF AN ON SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON TOTALING
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF NEW SNOWFALL.
CLIPPER (SUNDAY EVENING - MONDAY MORNING)
A WEAK CLIPPER IS SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT THE SYSTEM IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL. MOST THE AREA CAN EXPECT A DUSTING
WITH THE PASSAGE WITH NW WI HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES (30%) OF
SEEING HALF AN INCH.
WARMING TREND (WED - WEEKEND)
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE CLIPPER LATE MONDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLE BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL SLOWLY
BE ON THE RISE WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
FOR TUESDAY. BY CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING FOR THE DAY WITH A 15% CHANCE OF SOME SNOW IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE UPPER MIDWEST.
WARM AIR ADVECTION BECOMES QUITE RAMPANT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE MID 30S AND
LOW 40S BY THE WEEKEND. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS AGREEMENT WITH
DIGGING A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY BUT
DIVERGE WITH ITS PATH AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. WITH HOW WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IF THE PATH TAKES IT NORTH TO
OUR AREA WE COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OR A VARIATION OF
WINTRY MIX DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA HAVE DECREASED AS
DRY AIR HAS EATEN AWAY AT MOST OF IT. LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP A LITTLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTS AT HYR.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
HIGH PRESSURE IS DEPARTING THE REGION TODAY WITH VARIABLE WINDS
ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE LAKE
TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MAY WARRANT SOME SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES. PRIMARILY FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...BRITT
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