861
FXUS63 KDLH 151153
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
553 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SOME REACHING ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY.
- A CLIPPER BRINGS LOW CHANCES FOR SNOW FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH A SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A WARM
FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEAST TODAY, WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY WHILE BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY MID-MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
MAY BE TIMES WITH THE LOSS OF ICE ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR THIS HAVE COME DOWN, BUT
THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY, BUT WILL NOT
BRING ANY COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. WHAT IT WILL DO IS LEAD TO
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN IRON COUNTY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND SHIFT ANY
LAKE EFFECT INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. SNOWFALL TOTALS IN NORTHERN
IRON COUNTY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN INCLUDING THE
SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT, BUT MODELS ARE LESS THAN ENTHUSIASTIC
IN THIS REGARD WITH WPC SREF PLUMES BARELY BUDGING. THE BIGGER
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR THAT
ARRIVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
WELL, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO EACH NIGHT. WINDS DO NOT
LOOK TO COMPLETELY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING
INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO WITH SOME READINGS OF -40 OR
LOWER IN NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS STRETCH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF OUR FIRST EXTREME COLD WARNING IF CURRENT TRENDS
HOLD. WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING INTO MONDAY, LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IRON, ASHLAND AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT INL. THESE MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, REACHING HYR BY
MID-AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE WITH THESE CEILINGS AS
WELL AND BRING PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES. FURTHER REDUCTIONS
TO 1 MILE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS AND
TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SNOW SHOWERS END
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND ANY
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES, BUT THIS THREAT
HAS LOWERED SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. LLWS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25
TO 35 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING. CHANCES FOR GALES HAVE FALLEN TO
AROUND 10% WITH THIS UPDATE, SO HAVE REPLACED THE GALE WATCH
WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL THE NEARSHORE WATERS FOR
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO
30 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AND MAY LEAD TO VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO A MILE OR LESS IN STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS. WAVES THIS
AFTERNOON OF 3 TO 9 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE, HIGHEST ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE. A CLIPPER WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS, INCLUDING SOME GALES ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>148-
150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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