585
FXUS63 KDLH 160510
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1110 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WITH SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE SHOULD MOVE
OFF THROUGH THE EVENING LEAVING SCATTERED FLURRIES INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- A BRIEF WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING IN NE MN AND A 70-90% CHANCE IN NW WI ON FRIDAY.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW
-10F TO -20F ARE LIKELY (75 TO 95% CHANCE) WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30F TO -45F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG A FRONTAL REGION AHEAD OF INCOMING
RIDGING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BAND
OF SNOWFALL, SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT, BUT THEY MAY BE LOCALLY ENHANCED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE,
INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS, WHERE GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOULD WINDS FOR THIS EVENING TREND UPWARDS, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE AREAS WHERE ICE ALOFT IS LOST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LEADING TO SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE IN NE MN.
BEHIND THIS FRONT, IN AN ODD PATTERN FOR MID JANUARY, TEMPERATURES
ARE ACTUALLY WARMING. THIS IS THANKS TO A ROBUST RIDGE MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION, TRANSLATING OVER FROM DELIVERING
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO ALASKA AND THE YUKON LAST WEEK.
THIS WILL LEAD TO TWO DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
20S. FRIDAY, WE FIND OURSELVES IN THE WARM QUADRANT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE BORDER AND INTO THE MN ARROWHEAD, BUT POSSIBLY
MORE NOTABLY, SHOULD ALSO BRING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND
AND ABOVE FREEZING TO MUCH OF THE AREA, WARMEST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND INTO NW WI.
DON'T GET USED TO THOSE BALMY TEMPERATURES HOWEVER, BECAUSE AS SOON
AS THEY ARRIVE WE'LL SAY GOODBYE. BEHIND THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
FRIDAY COMES A BROAD TROUGH PLUMMETING DOWN FROM NUNAVUT, BRINGING
ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES 15 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DURING OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY COLDEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. THIS COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS OF -10F TO -25F OR COLDER. WIND CHILLS
OF -30F TO -45F OR COLDER ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AS BRISK NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY-MONDAY, WHEN A EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME
PASSING CHANCES OF SNOW RETURNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
A BLEND OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR HIB AND DLH AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FOR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF
THESE SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES, AS WELL, AS
THEY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARDS. BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE ARE BRIEF
VFR CEILINGS RETURNING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVE WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY, WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY INTERMITTENT FLURRIES INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO
SEEING LLWS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE WIND GUSTS
BECOME STRONGER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WEAKEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BUT PICK UP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM
TOMORROW NIGHT. WHILE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGER MUCH
OF THURSDAY, IT DOES APPEAR THAT CEILINGS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST WED JAN 15 2025
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH GALES OF 35-40 KNOTS POSSIBLE. THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY LATE THIS EVENING, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS PICKING BACK UP AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD LATE THIS
EVENING WHERE GUSTS DROP MORE INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE, HAVE OPTED
TO KEEP THE GALE WARNING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE GOING FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF GALES RETURNING WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES PERSIST.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY BEFORE
PICKING UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ144>148-
150.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...LEVENS
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