269
FXUS63 KDLH 161158
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
558 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING FRIDAY OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA, MOST LIKELY IN THE MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES
FALL, WITH A 50-90% CHANCE FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE COLDEST TWO DAYS WILL BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE
HIGHS FOR ALL AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO, NEAR
100% CHANCE. LOWS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO MID-20'S BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE EVEN
LOWER AND WE WILL CERTAINLY NEED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES OR
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR THE NORTHLAND AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
BUT FOR SURE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING REVEAL SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
CONTINUED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND, MAINLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF AWOS' REPORTING UP AND
SOUNDINGS/CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES SUGGEST SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE SO WILL ADD A MENTION TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. LITTLE SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. RIDGING WILL
MOVE IN TODAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND FREEZING OVER FAR NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH OTHER AREAS IN THE TWENTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE
LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT INTO NORTHWEST
ONTARIO BY 12Z FRIDAY, CONTINUING EAST/NORTHEAST FRIDAY FURTHER
THROUGH ONTARIO. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE, 20-60% FOR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, GREATEST IN
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR FRIDAY BEFORE MUCH
COLDER AIR POURS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE FROM 30 TO 35F
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING FOR FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
COLD AIR WILL SEND TEMPERATURES CRASHING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTH SHORE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS TO OR ABOVE
45 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, 40-60% CHANCE, AND
WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED THERE AS BOTH KATABATIC AND
GRAVITY WAVE PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT TOO HIGH FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO AND IT WILL ONLY GET COLDER FROM THERE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN TEENS TO
MID-20'SF BELOW ZERO. HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE NEAR
CERTAINLY GOING TO REMAIN BELOW ZERO, WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST
FROM -5 TO -15F. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE FROM 25 BELOW TO
AROUND 40 BELOW ZERO AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES/EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED STARTING LATER SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO WEST
OF NORTH LIMITING FETCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES, IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH FOR PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS TO OCCUR INCLUDING THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS REVEAL LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/FREEZING
DRIZZLE FALLING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO 2
TO 5SM WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING BUT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN, THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END FOR MOST BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND MVFR OR LOW VFR CEILINGS. THERE WAS
ALSO SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OCCURRING. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.
WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO CREATE MORE LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL BE VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND
VFR TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU JAN 16 2025
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL OCCUR
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON CST. THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BACK TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF LULL IN
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS OCCURRING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
MORNING THEN VEER TO WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE, 40-70%, FRIDAY AND
BE MOST LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHEN GUSTS TO
45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. VERY COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND IT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE THE WAVE
RESPONSE DUE TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GREATEST.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST TODAY
FOR LSZ140>143.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ140-141.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ142>145.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LSZ144>148-150.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
LSZ146>148-150.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
MARINE...MELDE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page