081
FXUS63 KDLH 170504
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1104 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN
INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALLS DEVELOPING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXITING THE REGION BY 6PM. QUICK REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER SNOW SQUALLS LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
- THERE IS A 40-50% CHANCE OF THE NORTH SHORE NEEDING A WIND
ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT.
- FRIGID AIR RETURNS THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM -30F TO -45F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
TRENDING DOWN FROM WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING. SATELLITE SHOWS AN
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM AND OVER THE CWA BUT A NICE
CHANGE OF PACE FOR TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE
30S AND THIS FORECASTER HIGHLY RECOMMENDS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF
IT WHILE YOU CAN. BECAUSE THE COLD IS COMING BACK...
TONIGHT:
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT
WITH KEEPING THE LOW TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES INCREASING
OVERNIGHT INSTEAD OF FOLLOWING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND.
ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM WING OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS WELL. TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR LESS.
FRIDAY:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS ONTARIO OUR WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE REPLACED
BY THE DRY SLOT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCOMING FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT PIVOTS ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS DAY IS
GOING TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP. THE
ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF COLD AIR IN
A RATHER QUICK FASHION. THIS LEADS TO A LINE OF INSTABILITY AND
STRONG FGEN MOVING NW TO SE IN THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SNOW SQUALLS. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME
LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WHICH LOOK
TO BE RATHER SHALLOW PREVENTING ANY DEEP CONVECTIVE MECHANISMS
FROM TAKING PLACE. THERE IS ALSO A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE TO GENERATE SNOW IN THE FIRST PLACE. EXTRA
EFFORT WILL NEED TO BE PUT INTO METWATCHING HOW THINGS EVOLVE
UPSTREAM BEFORE ENTERING INTO OUR AREA. REGARDLESS OF THE SNOW
SQUALL DEVELOPMENT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY, THE LIMITED MOISTURE AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL
KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL.
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST FRIDAY EVENING WE WILL BE LEFT UNDER STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME WITH NORTHWEST FLOW POURING OVER THE
REGION. ENHANCED WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH DOWNSLOPING
IS POSSIBLE. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK:
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR IN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCY OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND BELOW ZERO BEFORE FALLING OFF A CLIFF AS WE HEAD INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHERE HIGHS WILL BE TEN BELOW ZERO. OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -40F POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE ISOLATED TO NORTHERN IRON
COUNTY AS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST.
MIDWEEK:
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RECOVER TO SEASONAL NORMS BY THURSDAY. AT THE
MOMENT SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE
LARGELY INCONSISTENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
DRIER LOWER TO MID-LEVEL AIR IS PRECLUDING SNOW ON RADAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AS OF 05Z. EXPECT THIS TO LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THIS AREA OF WARM ADVECTION SNOW SHIFTS EAST,
THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
BRIEFLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
LLWS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TOWARDS MORNING AND
DAYTIME FRIDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY AS THESE
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
HIGH AS 35 KTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TERMINALS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY, WITH
WINDS STAYING GUSTY AS THEY VEER TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH A
30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINALS THAT COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS TO
IFR IF MOVING DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL. THE TIME PERIODS OF BEST
SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL IS HIGHLIGHTED IN PROB30 GROUPS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST THU JAN 16 2025
ENHANCED SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HOISTED
FOR ALL THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE
TOMORROW EVENING SWITCHING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO GALES AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY STORM FORCE WINDS AT TIMES. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING AND WITH THE FRIGID AIR MASS MOVING
INTO THE REGION FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME A CONCERN ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140-141-
146>148-150.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140-
141-146>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ142>145.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ142>145.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...BRITT
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