319
FXUS63 KDLH 171711
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1111 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS OR IN THE BLOWING SNOW.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM -30F TO -45F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
MILD CONDITIONS TO START THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO BITTER
COLD BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT BY TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA WERE IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S AT 4 AM
WITH UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF WINNIPEG ALONG
THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER WILL PROPAGATE QUICKLY EASTWARD THIS
MORNING TO NORTH OF THUNDER BAY BY NOON AND BETWEEN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND JAMES BAY BY 6 PM. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TODAY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY
AND WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS HARD TO COME BY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEREFORE THE
RISK OF SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS IS SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. NAM AND RAP SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT AN AREA NEAR AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO THE ARROWHEAD LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE 00Z INL SOUNDING AND LACK OF SURFACE SNOW
REPORTS OVERNIGHT BOTH REVEAL THE TROUBLE IN GETTING SNOW DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, WE THINK THE SNOW SQUALL RISK IS
SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ABOUT 20 PERCENT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW ZERO OR COLDER
FORECAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN
MINNESOTA. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT.
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH HAVE A 30-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING. THE GREATEST RISK IS GENERALLY BETWEEN TACONITE
HARBOR AND HOVLAND. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO SATURDAY MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE 0 F
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SOME AREAS.
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED AND THERE MAY BE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SOUTH SHORE
SNOWBELT AREAS. WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE SNOW IS UNLIKELY OVER THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WHILE MOSTLY VFR AT THE MOMENT, IFR CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND
THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING -SN DROP
VISIBILITIES. AFTER THE SNOW MOVES THROUGH, THE EVENING SHOULD
HAVE CLEARING SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS AS COLD AIR MOVES IN AND
REMAINS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 445 AM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY AND VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE VEERING NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD
GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST. A FEW STORM-FORCE GUSTS TO
50 KNOTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BETWEEN TACONITE HARBOR
AND HOVLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ABOUT A
10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF STORM-FORCE GUSTS. THE STRONG WINDS
WILL LEAD TO BUILDING WAVES. THE COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES ALONG
WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND TALL WAVES WILL CREATE A RISK OF HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE AND THE OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON MONDAY,
WHILE REMAINING HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFT INTO MID-WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ010>012-019>021.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
MNZ020-021.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140-141-146>148-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ142>145.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR LSZ142>145.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ145>147-150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...HUYCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page