864
FXUS63 KDLH 180204
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
804 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1/4
MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE IN SQUALLS OR IN THE BLOWING SNOW
CREATED BY THE STRONG WINDS THAT ARE ARRIVING.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM -30F TO -50F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
THIS AFTERNOON, LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY IN CONCERT WITH A PASSING
AGGRESSIVE LOW THROUGH CANADA MAY CAUSE SNOW SQUALLS. EVEN IF
SOMETHING ORGANIZED DOESN'T DEVELOP THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND
WITH WHATEVER SNOW THAT DOES FALL TO CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS, SO HAVE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOWING SNOW.
TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN FRIGID CONDITIONS,
WITH SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS OF 30F BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT NEAR -50F ON SUNDAY THOUGH
REMAIN COLD UNTIL TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA, BUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA IS IN A EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. AMBIENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE -20 TO -25F RANGE
EXCEPT CLOSE TO -30F ON MONDAY NIGHT.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AIR ARRIVING TONIGHT, ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF
45 TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF THESE GUSTS OCCURRING,
AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
WHILE PERIODIC FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR MASS,
WIDESPREAD MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS UNLIKELY. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH SHORE SNOWBELT AREAS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR DUE TO THE DRY AIR MIXING IN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER BY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
WARMING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE SNOW IS
IN STORE ON THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF A PASSING LOW THAT MARKS
THE END OF THE COLD WEATHER ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 803 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SPEEDS WEAKENING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SATELLITE SHOWS A
MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR STRATUS UPSTREAM. DRIER AIR MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GET THE NORTHLAND BACK TO VFR STATUS. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE SOME CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
IF THEY SET UP OVER A TERMINAL MAY LEAD TO SOME MVFR CONDITIONS. AT
THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ITS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE SKY COVERAGE
WILL BE BKN VS SCT. HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 30% CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST FRI JAN 17 2025
WINDS WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH OCCASIONAL STORM-FORCE GUSTS REACHING UP TO 50
KNOTS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TACONITE HARBOR AND HOVLAND TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF STORM-FORCE
GUSTS IS ESTIMATED AT 10-20%.
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS.
ADDITIONALLY, COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS AND TALL WAVES, WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE RISK OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE AND THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS, STARTING TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ020-021.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY
FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140>148-150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
LSZ145>147-150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...WOLFE
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