051
FXUS63 KDLH 181726
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF FRIGID AIR IS EXPECTED. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE
FROM -30F TO -50F, WITH THE COLDEST VALUES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE THIS WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL ALONG THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND
SNOWBELT OF NORTHEAST IRON COUNTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND
30C BELOW ZERO. 09Z TEMPERATURES WERE A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
ZERO AT KINL/KY49/KFOZ. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE FROM 0 TO -8F OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS IS AS GOOD AS IT WILL GET FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WE WILL KEEP THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOING OVER
MUCH OF CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES AROUND -30 AT TIMES.
RECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WERE NOT AS
STRONG AS EARLIER WHEN THE FRONT AND PRESSURE RISES MOVED
THROUGH. WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY GOING FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS THOUGH AS KATABATIC/GRAVITY WAVE PROCESSES MAY STILL LEAD
TO SOME STRONG GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. THERE IS A LOW, 10-30%
CHANCE, THAT STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT (SATURDAY
NIGHT) ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS BELOW WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SKY COVER VARIED THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEAR AREAS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF MORE CLOUDS. WE EXPECT FLURRIES WHEREVER THERE ARE
CLOUDS TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE COLD. HIGHS
SUNDAY/MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 6F BELOW TO 16F BELOW
ZERO. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
TEENS BELOW TO MID-TWENTIES BELOW ZERO. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
WIND TO SEND WIND CHILL VALUES EVEN COLDER AS THE CENTER OF A
STRONG 1050MB HIGH WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE WEST. WIND CHILL
VALUES FROM 35 BELOW TO 50 BELOW ZERO WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND WE HAVE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
IN EFFECT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE WARNING THRESHOLDS ARE NOT MET IN SPOTS BUT THEY SHOULD
NOT BE FOR VERY LONG. THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR JUST TEMPERATURE
WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT WHEN LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED. LOWS THEN
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 20 BELOW TO 30 BELOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MODERATE MID TO LATE WEEK. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE BROKEN BUT A COUPLE SITES COULD SET NEW COLD MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
IN ADDITION TO THE COLD WILL BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FETCH IS TOO WEST OF
NORTH FOR IDEAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BUT THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY WILL MAKE UP SOME FOR THE LACK OF FETCH. THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT SNOW RATIOS BUT SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW WILL IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL FROM THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA
INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST IRON COUNTY SNOWBELT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCESSIVE AND WE DON'T
PLAN ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THE SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RESULT
IN CONDITIONS LARGELY BEING VFR. HOWEVER, AREAS OF FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS. THESE MVFR CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG-LASTING AS
BANDS OF LOWER STRATOCUMULUS MOVE THROUGH. FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT, MAKING A RETURN MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT WILL DIMINISH A BIT THROUGH THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY. A FEW STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 45 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, MAINLY CLOSE TO SHORE. GALE WARNINGS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST THROUGH 10 AM. THE WIND AND/OR WAVES WILL
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO SUNDAY TO
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALLER VESSELS AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOST BUT WILL
LAST INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND
PORTAGE AND FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS.
FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH SHORE, BUT AS THE WIND DIMINISHES SOME, SO WILL WAVES.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE GALE/HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SEE THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND
NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ142>148.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LSZ145-
146.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ147-
150.
DISCUSSION...MELDE
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...MELDE
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