165
FXUS63 KDLH 190516
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1116 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
- PROLONGED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7 INCHES WILL BE IN THE
BAYFIELD PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING TODAY, FOLLOWING AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA HAS BEEN BREEZY AT TIMES, CREATING VERY COLD
WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND NEGATIVE 20S. DUE TO THESE
COLD WIND CHILLS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST MN, EXCLUDING PINE COUNTY, UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. IN ADDITION
TO COLD TEMPS, SPORADIC FLURRIES HAVE ALSO BEEN OCCURRING IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MN AS HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY UNDERNEATH STRONG STABILITY ALOFT CAUSED BY THE
STRONG CAA. THESE FLURRIES WILL BE SUBSIDING AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING STOPS. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FROM THESE FLURRIES IN NORTHERN MN.
EXPECT COLDER TEMPS TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND -20S. WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS WON'T BE
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG TONIGHT, WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -35 TO -45 ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FORECAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS AS THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS
LINGERS. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
STARTING 6 PM THIS EVENING AND REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON ON
TUESDAY. WHILE WE AREN'T EXPECTED TO BREAK RECORD LOW MINIMUMS, WE
MAY APPROACH RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPS FOR A COUPLE CLIMATE SITES ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
EXCLUDING SPORADIC FLURRIES PRODUCING A DUSTING OF SNOW,
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL ACROSS THE CWA TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY DURING THIS COLD STRETCH. WHILE MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE
DRY, THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELTS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. DELTA-T WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT
DEVELOPMENT, AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE COOLING TO AROUND -30 DEGC WITH
LAKE SFC TEMPS STILL AROUND 3 DEGC.
ONE LIMITING FACTOR IN THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL BE MINIMAL ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE, WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF PWAT EXPECTED TO BE AVAILABLE. ESSENTIALLY, ALL
MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO COME FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, WHICH WILL KEEP
SNOWFALL RATES FAIRLY LIGHT. DESPITE MINIMAL MOISTURE, THE
BAYFIELD PENINSULA IS LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-7" TODAY
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THESE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF NORTHERN IRON COUNTY AND INSTEAD PLACE MOST
OF THE SNOW IN THE PORCUPINE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS FARTHER
NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LIGHT SNOW RATES EXPECTED OVER THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA FOR SUCH A PROLONGED PERIOD, DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING
ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. HOWEVER, CAUTION SHOULD STILL BE
TAKEN ON SNOW COVERED ROADS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE VERY COLD
TEMPS.
STARTING AROUND MIDWEEK, A TROUGH WILL BEGIN DIGGING INTO THE LOWER
48 FROM ALASKA. DESPITE IT'S FAR NORTHERN ORIGIN, THIS TROUGH WILL
BE BRINGING WARMER TEMPS ALOFT COMPARED TO THE AIRMASS THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE EARLY THIS UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S MID TO LATE THIS WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. LIGHT SNOW ALSO ENTERS THE FORECAST LATE THIS
WEEK AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH AND RESULTING SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY APPEARING
LIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH THERE ARE HINTS THAT
SOME LOWER CEILINGS MAY BE AROUND ON SUNDAY. THINKING THAT
MODELS ARE OVERDOING THIS A BIT, BUT THERE MAY BE THAT THIN VEIL
OF STRATUS THAT IS SEE-THROUGH THOUGH ENOUGH TO CAUSE A CEILING
AND THAT MAY BE WHAT THEY ARE PICKING UP ON. MEANWHILE, SOME
MVFR STRATUS PLUMES ARE EMANATING FROM ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES.
OTHERWISE NORTHWEST WINDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT GUSTY.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2025
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48+
HOURS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT
AS WAVES IN EXCESS OF 4 FEET CONTINUE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, AS NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ELEVATED. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE NORTHWEST
WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 22 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER DECREASING. EXPECT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>148-150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ147-
150.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...UNRUH
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