276
FXUS63 KDLH 202056
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
256 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, AND AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OF 1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE, WITH LOWER TOTALS IN
NORTHEAST DOUGLAS, NORTHEAST ASHLAND, AND NORTHERN IRON
COUNTIES.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE
NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL. THESE FEATURES ARE
MAINTAINING DEEP LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
WITH THE ADDED FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE, LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY.
WITH THE SURFACE HIGH NEARBY, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE -18 TO -28F RANGE.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE WEAKER, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STILL
DROP TO THE -35 TO -45F RANGE. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS TO THE
EAST TOMORROW, WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST, THEN SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO MODERATE AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW 0F, AND WILL LIKELY
WARM OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TUESDAY, EXPECT AN
CONVERGENCE BAND OF SNOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT SHIFT
INLAND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE
AHEAD OF LIGHT SNOW FALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS
THE CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVES EASTWARD. CONTINUE TO THINK MODEL
GUIDANCE IS OVERPLAYING THE MOISTURE CARD, AND TRIMMED BACK QPFS
AND SNOW TOTALS. MOST OF THE AREA MIGHT SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, 1-2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THERE.
WINDS QUICKLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING UP MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ON PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES. A COUPLE
TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT NONE BRING A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST MON JAN 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS AT MID DAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT 5-15KTS. HIB WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS AND
VIS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ICE CRYSTALS AND ANTHROPOGENIC
SOURCES. WILL CARRY MVFR CIGS INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY AT
HIB, BASED ON CONDITIONS THE LAST COUPLE DAYS AND A SIMILAR
PATTERN EXPECTED. OCCASIONAL LOWER CIGS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT
INL DUE TO CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER NEARBY LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
THIS ACTIVITY AFFECTING HYR.
AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION TODAY AND WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL AID IN IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT HIB BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 7-10KTS THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER GUSTS.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
COLD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW AND
WARMER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS FORECAST BEGINNING TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER
APOSTLES, AND THEN FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY AND WEAKEN BRINGING AN END TO
THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR A DAY OR TWO. STRONGER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>148-
150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
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