846
FXUS63 KDLH 211728
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1128 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, AND AN EXTREME COLD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END TODAY, WITH LESS THAN AN
INCH OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECTS WILL
RETURN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
BITTER COLD CONTINUES THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3
AM RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
UNDER NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA HAVING
PRODUCED LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR INDICATES THAT THE LAKE EFFECTS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE
LAST COUPLE DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SO THE SNOW IS AFFECTING
LESS OF THE SOUTH SHORE, PUSHING IT MORE OUT OVER THE LAKE, WITH
ONLY THE NORTHERN BAYFIELD PENINSULA STILL BEING AFFECTED BY
SNOWFALL. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT, CAUSING WINDS TO
SLOWLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS SWITCH IN WIND WILL
HELP BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OUT OVER THE LAKE
INSTEAD OF ONTO LAND. LESS THAN AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE AREA TODAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE QUICKLY OUT OF EXTREME COLD CRITERIA
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE ARE GOING
TO BE SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THAT DO NOT GET ABOVE 25
BELOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT EXTREME COLD WARNING EXPIRES
AT NOON TODAY, AND I ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO ISSUE AN
ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN FOR AT LEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THAT INCOMING CLIPPER IS GOING TO CAUSE OUR TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE WE RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW US TO WARM ENOUGH TO NOT NEED ANY COLD
HEADLINES AFTER LATE THIS EVENING. THIS CLIPPER THAT FINALLY
BREAKS US OUT OF THIS COLD SNAP WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE WARMER TEMPERATURES, GUSTY
WINDS AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND BEGINNING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, SNOWING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH LAKE EFFECT SNOWS LINGER WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE ONCE AGAIN. THIS SYSTEM IS A FAIRLY TYPICAL
CLIPPER, MOVING QUICKLY AND NOT ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH MOISTURE, SO
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE
HALF INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF RANGE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WE
MAY GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE LATE
TONIGHT, BUT CONSIDERING THE WEAKER MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
DO NOT THINK WE ARE LOOKING AT MUCH EXTRA SNOW. BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, WE SHOULD GET A PERIOD OF TYPICAL NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AS WELL, BUT THIS TOO WILL BE
LIMITED BY MOISTURE AND THERE WILL ONLY BE LIGHT EXTRA AMOUNTS
THERE AS WELL.
BEYOND THURSDAY THE FORECAST GETS GENERALLY QUIET, WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT MONDAY, AND INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES DRIVEN BY FAST MOVING CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS.
FOR NOW WE ARE CARRYING SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIODS
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THESE CLIPPERS, INCLUDING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND PERHAPS ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE REGION. THE PERSISTENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WILL CAUSE SOME
INTERMITTENT SHOTS OF COLDER AIR, BUT WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY BEFORE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR, HOWEVER MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW EITHER
AN THE TAIL END OR SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT. OUR COLD WEATHER WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
BITTER COLD CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS MORNING TO
BACK INTO THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS BITTER COLD COMBINED WITH
THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY, MAINLY FOR THE
OUTER APOSTLES, AND THEN FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE
GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY AND WEAKEN BRINGING AN END TO
THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR A DAY OR TWO. STRONGER WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>148-
150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM
CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>142.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ146-147.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...LE
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