873
FXUS63 KDLH 212126
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT SUBZERO OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL
LINGER. TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND.
- A CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, BRINGING 1
TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST, WITH A LOCALIZED MAXIMUM OF 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE (50%) ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
- ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND, WITH MORE RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
AS AN ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, NOW
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUOUSLY INCREASE. HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS AT -25 DEGREES AND
LOWER ARE STILL EXPECTED FOR OUR EASTERN WISCONSIN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BEFORE TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO BE ABOVE -25. THUS, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ASHLAND, IRON, AND PRICE COUNTIES
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE NORTHLAND'S HIGH TEMPERATURES GET
BACK INTO THE POSITIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, BUT SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES LINGER OVERNIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A CLIPPER WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
SO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES
ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THERE ARE SIGNALS IN
THE HIGH RES MODELS FOR A LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW TOTAL OF 3 INCHES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE FROM LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY REMAINING OF
WHETHER THIS ADDITIONAL INCH TO INCH AND A HALF WILL FALL
ONSHORE OR JUST OFFSHORE, DEPENDING ON THE DIRECTION OF FLOW
ALOFT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND FLOW SWITCHES TO
THE NORTHWEST, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL START UP ONCE AGAIN ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE. AN ADDITIONAL 2-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FROM LAKE EFFECT BEFORE A DRY AIR MASS MOVES IN AND SNOW
ENDS.
FOR THURSDAY, THE CREST OF A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
MIDWEST AND DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COUPLE CLIPPERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SEEMS TO
BE SIMILAR TO THE ONE FOR TONIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE INCHES AS WELL FOR EACH
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY BEFORE
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES IN THIS EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD
PRIMARILY REMAIN VFR, HOWEVER MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL. MVFR CEILINGS WILL FOLLOW EITHER
AN THE TAIL END OR SHORTLY AFTER THE END OF SNOWFALL LATE
TONIGHT. OUR COLD WEATHER WILL SLOWLY WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY AND
INTO TOMORROW.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2025
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE TEENS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE FURTHER TODAY
AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, LEADING TO CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. EITHER AN EXTENSION OF THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OR AN ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER A
LULL PERIOD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ003-
004-009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>148-
150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ140>142.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ146-147.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
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