000
FXUS63 KDLH 161737
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1137 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTH SHORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIMINISHES DURING THE DAY TODAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR IRON COUNTY THIS MORNING. LIGHTER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW STARTS BACK UP LATE TODAY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BITTERLY COLD AIR RETURNS TODAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE END OF THE
MONTH, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
TODAY:
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS
BRINGING DRIER, COLDER AIR AND NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, KDLH RADAR AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/WEBCAMS HAVE SHOWN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW ENDING
FOR ALL BUT PORTIONS OF IRON COUNTY. THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO
CUT OFF LAKE-EFFECT IN IRON COUNTY FOR A TIME BY LATER THIS
MORNING/MIDDAY. THEREFORE, HAVE CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR DOUGLAS, BAYFIELD, AND ASHLAND COUNTIES. WHILE
IRON COUNTY REMAINS IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH THE
MORNING, THIS TOO MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IF THE DRY AIR
EXPANDS EASTWARDS QUICKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. WITH THAT
SAID, EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES THROUGH MIDDAY IN THE
NORTHERN 1/2 OF IRON COUNTY AND AROUND OR LESS THAN AN INCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF IRON COUNTY.
ALONG WITH THIS COLD AIR, EXPECT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH WIND
CHILLS OF -20F TO -30F IN MN AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS OF -10F TO -20F IN NW WI.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN MANITOBA MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES
(20%) FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN MN.
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE RATHER LACKING, WITH PWATS OF AROUND 0.05
INCHES (AROUND 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MID-FEBRUARY
PER HISTORICAL INL SOUNDINGS). WITH THAT SAID, THE MAJORITY OF
THE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF
THE GROUND, SO, WHEN COMBINED WITH STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND FORCING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIGHT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS. VERY LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN TODAY, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO ONLY TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO AROUND 10F,
WITH BREEZY NW WINDS KEEPING DAYTIME WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
LINGERING SOUTH SHORE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS OVERSPREADS THE NORTHLAND FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO AS COLD AS -25C TO -35C 850 MB
TEMPS. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES OVER A MOSTLY OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR
SHOULD KICK OFF LIGHTER LAKE-EFFECT SNOW FOR THE SOUTH SHORE
BEGINNING AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS, AND THEN CONTINUING INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN PREDOMINATELY
NORTHWESTERLY BUT THE DEPTH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN
QUESTION.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOW-END FLURRY/LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
(10-20% CHANCE) IN THE ARROWHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOBE OF
VORTICITY WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST, THOUGH THE COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE SHOULD
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATIONS VERY MINIMAL TO NONE.
BRUTAL COLD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
GIVEN OUR FRESHER SNOW COVER FROM RECENT SNOWFALL, SOME TRENDS
IN LESS CLOUDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A STRONG SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WITH THE
AIRMASS MOVING IN TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE HAVE LOWERED
THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WHILE NOT QUITE TO RECORD COLD HIGH OR LOW TEMPERATURES, THIS
WILL STILL BE A FRIGID STRETCH OF WEATHER.
LOWS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO, COLDEST IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL MN
WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO GET AS LOW AS -40F TO -45F
AND THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -30F
TO -40F. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF
TEMP/WIND CHILL FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER.
TEMPERATURES ONLY RISE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ON MONDAY WITH DAYTIME WIND CHILLS LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BELOW ZERO.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST
PORTION OF THE WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S BELOW ZERO
AND WIND CHILLS OF -35F TO -45F. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS A RESULT. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO AND DAYTIME WIND CHILLS OF -5F TO -15F ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
ONE MORE NIGHT OF FRIGID TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO 20S
BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS OF -25F TO -40F. THIS MAY NECESSITATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE COLD WEATHER HEADLINES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY DO TURN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER, SETTLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
AROUND 10F.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND BEYOND:
THE HIGH PRESSURE CREATING THIS POOL OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED CLIPPERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW SLICE THROUGH
THE UPPER MIDWEST VERY LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES VERY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL SNOW CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEMS NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS
PRESENT AT THE TIME. CPC FORECASTS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THEN FAVOR A RETURN OF AROUND TO EVEN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. LAKE
EFFECT, MVFR CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT THEIR
TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP THEM OUT OF KHYR. STRATOCUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, MAINLY AS SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD BASES. SCATTERED
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR KINL, KHIB AND KDLH, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20KTS NEAR KDLH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER
SPEEDS OTHERWISE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS NEAR GRAND MARAIS
THIS MORNING AND IN THE OPEN WATERS AND 20 TO 25 KTS FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WILL KEEP ELEVATED WAVES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
GOING INTO MIDDAY. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BRIEF LULL IN WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND OR BELOW 20 KTS FROM VERY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS PICK BACK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 25 KTS
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, HAVE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL MIDDAY MONDAY. THE
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING WAS CANCELLED DUE TO THE WIND AND
WAVE COMBINATION FOR THE SOUTH SHORE NOT BEING STRONG ENOUGH. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY IN THAT 20 TO
25 KT RANGE, SO ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
BEYOND MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-037-038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140>146-148-
150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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