773
FXUS63 KDLH 162224
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
424 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW STARTS BACK UP TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE AND PERSISTS INTERMITTENTLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BITTERLY COLD AIR RETURNS TODAY INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY
NIGHT, AS WELL.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE END OF THE
MONTH, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES RETURNING NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSING BY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 423 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH LAKE EFFECT
CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THERE ARE ALSO
SOME INSTABILITY BASED CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, MANITOBA AND A LITTLE OF ONTARIO. THESE
ARE BEING GENERATED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT,
RIDING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. SO, I EXPECT THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLIDE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA, EVEN AS THEY REDUCE IN COVERAGE AND PRODUCE
ONLY VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IMPACT FROM
THEM, AND HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. FOR NOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW SQUALLS REMAINS VERY LOW.
ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH
A POOL OF COLD AIR ALOFT SETTING IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
MONDAY, WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -25C TO -30C WHICH
DIPS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. TOGETHER WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER, THIS SHOULD ALLOW OUR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT YET
NEAR RECORDS. DEPENDING ON NEAR TERM TRENDS, CLOUD COVER AND
WIND, WE MAY NEED TO LOWER THESE TEMPERATURES FURTHER. THE EFI
FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPS FOR ALL THREE DAYS SHOWS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR COLD, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMES DOES NOT
APPEAR VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A MIXTURE OF
EXTREME COLD WARNING AND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND, AS WELL AS AN EXTREME COLD
WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THE POOL OF COLD AIR MODERATES AND IS PUSHED SOUTH BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. I DO NOT EXPECT A BIG WARM-UP UNTIL
LATER IN THE WEEK, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE PLAINS
OF THE DAKOTAS, SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA INTO FRIDAY,
KEEPING THE FLOW GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DOES NOT PASS ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL FRIDAY, WHEN WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.
AFTER FRIDAY IT LOOKS LIKE WE RETURN TO A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH EMBEDDED CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS WHICH BRING INTERMITTENT SNOW
CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE ALSO
INDICATIONS WE SHOULD GET ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EITHER LATE
IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY SHOW WE
HAVE ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE
FREEZING ON SUNDAY SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. LAKE
EFFECT, MVFR CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, BUT THEIR
TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP THEM OUT OF KHYR. STRATOCUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, MAINLY AS SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD BASES. SCATTERED
MVFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR KINL, KHIB AND KDLH, BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS LOW AND HAVE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20KTS NEAR KDLH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTER
SPEEDS OTHERWISE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 423 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
CAUSING WAVES TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. HAVE
MAINTAINED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND EXTENDED THEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ANTICIPATE THEY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO TUESDAY FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE LAKE. FREEZING SPRAY MAY
BECOME A CONCERN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE WINDS BECOME. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH AFTER
TUESDAY AND REMAIN MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-025-026-033>038.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.
WI...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140>146-148-
150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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